Question

Three airlines serve a small town in Ohio. Airline A has 48% of all scheduled flights, airline B has 33% and airline C has the remaining 19%. Their on-time rates are 81%, 69%, and 35%, respectively. A flight just left on-time. What is the probability that it was a flight of airline A?

Answer 1

Solution:

Let A =  Airline A ,B =  Airline B and C =  Airline C

thus we have:

P(A) =0.48

P(B) =0.33

P(C)= 0.19

Let O = flight left on-time

thus we have:

P(O|A)= 0.81

P(O|B) = 0.69

P(O|C) = .35

We have to find:

P( a flight of airline A | it just left on-time) =..............?

P(A |O)=.............?

Using Bayes rule of probability: