Question

Suppose the Payroll tax reduction for middle-income households has been extended in the amount of $500 billion for the remainder of 2020 to recover from COVID-19 crisis. Assuming the MPC for that income group of households is 0.8 and also assuming that other things stay the same, the increase in GDP under this proposed extension of tax break is expected to increase by (ΔY) _______

1) The Economy cannot be considered fully employed unless the measured unemployment rate is below 1%. Agree or disagree and explain your answer in a paragraph. What is the current actual u-rate for the US economy as of September Data for 2020? Is this unemployment rate below or above or equal to u-rate at full employment (usually called natural rate of unemployment or NAIRU)? What state of the economy do you consider from this u-rate for Sep 2020 (recession, depression or inflation?) and its sources?

2) A) Why would you expect the inflation rate to accelerate if the actual unemployment rate declined to a level lower than the "full employment" unemployment rate (NAIRU) and remained at that low level for a year or longer? Explain your answer in a few sentences.

B) Draw an AS/AD diagram illustrating your answer to part (A) and refer to the current state of the economy of the US to compare in this context. Be sure to label all lines and axes in your diagram clearly. 2pts 3) Suppose between Q1, 2018 and Q4, 2019 measured Output in the non- farm business sector increased by 3.6%. During this time period the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% to 3.7% and total hours worked in the nonfarm business sector increased by 3.8%. What was the % rate of change in labor productivity over this period (Q1 2018 and Q2 2020)? Explain your answer briefly. (Hint: Labor productivity = Y/Labor hours; RGDP growth rate = Labor productivity growth plus and Labor Force Growth rate. No need to use u-rate changes for this question)

4) a. The Federal Government distributed a recovery relief fund to all households with $600 for all individuals filing and $1,200 for all households filing jointly and $500 for each children in each household. This was part of the $2.2 Trillion stimulus package under CARES Act of March 2020 that also included employee job protection plan for small business owners and restaurants, travel related businesses, unemployment insurances and households with no taxes filed. What would be the overall impact on AD of this recovery relief fund caused by COVID19 public health crisis and its effect on change in real GDP? Assume that the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) for all American consumers is 0.8 in March 2020. Explain your answer briefly as well in your own words. Make sure you use your understanding of the concept of expenditure multiplier in estimating this problem.

4) b. Trump’s imposition of $260 billion tariff in the Month of May 2019 (taxes on imports to the US Market) on Chinese exports to the US has caused a global tension in financial markets and related business activities. In retaliation of Trump’s tariff, China also imposed almost similar amount of tariff on US exports to China about $200 billon. In response to this trade war between the US and China, the US stock price indices of the Wall Street plummeted in May and June 2019. Th stock market in Shanghai in China also crashed at the same time. The data on new job for the US economy in May showed a very slow rate of job creation at the same time. Given this scenario from the US-China trade war and given your knowledge on macro model of AD an AS, do you think the the retaliation of China in response to Trump’s Tariff would have a negative impact on the US economy in near future? Give your reason in your opinion as to why or why not the case.

Answer 1