Question

In: Statistics and Probability

The general fund budget (in billions of dollars) for a U.S. state for 1988 (period 1)...

The general fund budget (in billions of dollars) for a U.S. state for 1988 (period 1) to 2011 (period 24) follows.

Year Period Budget
($ billions)
1988 1 3.03
1989 2 3.29
1990 3 3.56
1991 4 4.41
1992 5 4.36
1993 6 4.51
1994 7 4.65
1995 8 5.15
1996 9 5.34
1997 10 5.66
1998 11 6.01
1999 12 6.30
2000 13 6.58
2001 14 6.75
2002 15 6.56
2003 16 6.78
2004 17 6.98
2005 18 7.65
2006 19 8.38
2007 20 8.57
2008 21 8.76
2009 22 8.43
2010 23 8.33
2011 24 8.76

(a)

Construct a time series plot.

What type of pattern exists in the data?

The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern.

The time series plot shows a nonlinear trend.    

The time series plot shows a seasonal pattern.

The time series plot shows a linear trend.

(b)

Develop a linear trend equation for this time series to forecast the budget (in billions of dollars). (Round your numerical values to three decimal places.)

Tt =

(c)

What is the forecast (in billions of dollars) for period 25? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

$ _______ billion

Solutions

Expert Solution

a)

The time series plot shows a linear trend.

b)

Tt =3.025+0.254t

c)

predicted val=3.025+25*0.254= 9.38 billion

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