In: Accounting
Ironlove Inc. considers a project to supply a car manufacturer with 105,000 tons of steel plates annually for five years. It requires an initial investment of 42 million dollars in steel plate production machinery. The variable cost of the production is $430 per ton. The overhead cost will be 15 million dollars a year, and the company estimates the price of the steel plates at $950 per ton. To run this project, Ironlove needs to invest 8 million dollars in the net working capital at time zero.
The machinery belongs to Class 6, with a CCA rate of 15%. The company estimates that it can sell the machinery at a salvage value of 12 million dollars. Assume the company requires a 15% rate of return, and the tax rate is 40%.
Suppose you believe that the accounting department’s initial cost and salvage value projections are accurate only to within ±20%; the marketing department’s steel price estimate is accurate only within ±15%, and the net working capital estimate is accurate only to within ±10%. What is your worst-case and best-case scenario for this project?
Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
Initial cost | (42000000) | |||||
New Working capital | (8000000) | |||||
Sales | 99750000 | 99750000 | 99750000 | 99750000 | 99750000 | |
Less- Variable cost | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | |
Less- Overhead Cost | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | |
Less- Depreciation | 6300000 | 5355000 | 4551750 | 3868987.5 | 3288639.4 | |
Earnings before interest and tax | 33300000 | 34245000 | 35048250 | 35731013 | 36311361 | |
Less: Tax @ 40% | 13320000 | 13698000 | 14019300 | 14292405 | 14524544 | |
Net Income | 19980000 | 20547000 | 21028950 | 21438608 | 21786816 | |
Add: Depreciation | 6300000 | 5355000 | 4551750 | 3868987.5 | 3288639.4 | |
Add: Recovery of net working capital | 8000000 | |||||
Add: After tax salvage value (W.N..) | 14654249 | |||||
Operating cash flows (OCF) | (50000000) | 26280000 | 25902000 | 25580700 | 25307595 | 47729705 |
PV factors @ 15% | 1 | 0.8695652 | 0.7561437 | 0.6575162 | 0.5717532 | 0.4971767 |
Present value | (50000000) | 22852174 | 19585633 | 16819725 | 14469700 | 23730099 |
Net Present Value (NPV) | 47457331 |
W.Note
Sale proceeds | 12000000 |
Cost | 18635623 |
Loss | -6635623 |
Tax savings @40% | -2654249 |
After tax salvage value | 14654249 |
BEST CASE | ||||||
Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
Initial cost | (50400000) | |||||
New Working capital | (8800000) | |||||
Sales | 114712500 | 114712500 | 114712500 | 114712500 | 114712500 | |
Less- Variable cost | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | |
Less- Overhead Cost | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | |
Less- Depreciation | 7560000 | 6426000 | 5462100 | 4642785 | 3946367.3 | |
Earnings before interest and tax | 47002500 | 48136500 | 49100400 | 49919715 | 50616133 | |
Less: Tax @ 40% | 18801000 | 19254600 | 19640160 | 19967886 | 20246453 | |
Net Income | 28201500 | 28881900 | 29460240 | 29951829 | 30369680 | |
Add: Depreciation | 7560000 | 6426000 | 5462100 | 4642785 | 3946367.3 | |
Add: Recovery of net working capital | 8800000 | |||||
Add: After tax salvage value | 17585099 | |||||
Operating cash flows (OCF) | (59200000) | 35761500 | 35307900 | 34922340 | 34594614 | 60701146 |
PV factors @ 15% | 1 | 0.8695652 | 0.7561437 | 0.6575162 | 0.5717532 | 0.4971767 |
Present value | (59200000) | 31096957 | 26697845 | 22962005 | 19779583 | 30179198 |
Net Present Value (NPV) | 71515587 |
W.Note
Sale proceeds | 14400000 |
Cost | 22362748 |
Loss | -7962748 |
Tax savings @40% | -3185099 |
After tax salvage value | 17585099 |
WORST CASE | ||||||
Year 0 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
Initial cost | (33600000) | |||||
New Working capital | (7200000) | |||||
Sales | 84787500 | 84787500 | 84787500 | 84787500 | 84787500 | |
Less- Variable cost | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | 45150000 | |
Less- Overhead Cost | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | 15000000 | |
Less- Depreciation | 5040000 | 4284000 | 3641400 | 3095190 | 2630911.5 | |
Earnings before interest and tax | 19597500 | 20353500 | 20996100 | 21542310 | 22006589 | |
Less: Tax @ 40% | 7839000 | 8141400 | 8398440 | 8616924 | 8802635.4 | |
Net Income | 11758500 | 12212100 | 12597660 | 12925386 | 13203953 | |
Add: Depreciation | 5040000 | 4284000 | 3641400 | 3095190 | 2630911.5 | |
Add: Recovery of net working capital | 7200000 | |||||
Add: After tax salvage value | 11723399 | |||||
Operating cash flows (OCF) | (40800000) | 16798500 | 16496100 | 16239060 | 16020576 | 34758264 |
PV factors @ 15% | 1 | 0.8695652 | 0.7561437 | 0.6575162 | 0.5717532 | 0.4971767 |
Present value | (40800000) | 14607391 | 12473422 | 10677446 | 9159816.3 | 17281000 |
Net Present Value (NPV) | 23399075 |
W.Note
Sale proceeds | 9600000 |
Cost | 14908499 |
Profit/Loss | -5308499 |
Tax savings @40% | -2123399 |
After tax salvage value | 11723399 |