Question

Analysts expect Walmart Inc. to have earnings per share of $5.60 for the coming year (year 1). Walmart intends to invest heavily in its online platform in the near term and therefore plans to retain and reinvest 80% of its earnings for the next three years (years 1, 2 and 3). For the next two years (years 4 and 5), retention and reinvestment is anticipated to decrease, with Walmart expected to retain 60% of its earnings. After that (year 6 onwards) the retention rate is expected to drop to 40% and remain that way. Walmart’s new investments in online shopping are expected to generate a return of 15% per year. Walmart’s equity cost of capital is estimated to be 9%.

a. Using the information provided above, estimate Walmart’s share price today.

Suppose the retention rate estimate for year 6 onwards given above is not credible and you therefore ignore it (estimates prior to year 5 are still valid). Instead, you expect Walmart’s 1- year forward price to earnings ratio in year 5 (i.e. PE ratio based on year 5 price and year 6 expected earnings) to be 24.5 (the midpoint between the S&P 500 historical average of 16 and Walmart’s current PE ratio of 33).

b. Use this information to come up with another estimate of Walmart’s share price.

Answer 1

growth rate = retion tention ratio *ROE

terminal value = 6th year eps/ cost of equity- growth rate

b) share price on 5th year = eps of 6th year* forword pe