Question

The Porsche Shop, founded in 1985 by Dale Jensen, specializes in the restoration of vintage Porsche automobiles. One of Jensen's regular customers asked him to prepare an estimate for the restoration of a 1964 model 356SC Porsche. To estimate the time and cost to perform such a restoration, Jensen broke the restoration process into four separate activities: disassembly and initial preparation work (A), body restoration (B), engine restoration (C), and final assembly (D). Once activity A has been completed, activities B and C can be performed independently of each other; however, activity D can be started only if both activities B and C have been completed. Based on his inspection of the car, Jensen believes that the following time estimates (in days) are applicable:

Activity		Optimistic		Most Probable		Pessimistic
A		3		4		8
B		5		8		11
C		2		4		6
D		4		5		12

Jensen estimates that the parts needed to restore the body will cost $3000 and that the parts needed to restore the engine will cost $5000. His current labor costs are $400 a day.

1. What is the expected project completion time?
   
   Critical Path: A-B-D
   
   If required, round your answer to one decimal place.
   
   Expected time = _______ days
   
2. Jensen's business philosophy is based on making decisions using a best- and worst-case scenario. Develop cost estimates for completing the restoration based on both a best- and worst-case analysis. Assume that the total restoration cost is the sum of the labor cost plus the material cost.
   
   If required, round non-monetary answers to the nearest whole number. If required, round monetary answers to the nearest dollar.
   
   Best Cost (Optimistic Times) = _______days
   
   Total Cost = $  _______
   
   Worst Cost (Pessimistic Times) =  _______days
   
   Total Cost = $_______  
3. If Jensen obtains the job with a bid that is based on the costs associated with an expected completion time, what is the probability that he will lose money on the job?
   
   If required, round non-monetary answer to two decimal places. If required, round monetary answer to the nearest dollar.
   
   Bid Cost = $  _______
   
   _______ probability time and cost will exceed the expected time and cost (If required, round your answer to two decimal places).
4. If Jensen obtains the job based on a bid of $16,800, what is the probability that he will lose money on the job?
   
   Note: Use Appendix B to identify the areas for the standard normal distribution. If required, round your answer to four decimal places.
   
   The probability of a loss is _______

Please fill out all of the blanks! Thank you!!!

Answer 1