Question

Chapter 11 - The Role of Chance in Psychology By Stanovich

Stanovich explains "when we say that something is due to chance, we do not necessarily mean that it is indeterminate, only that it is currently indeterminable". What is the difference?

Answer 1

• Chance and randomness are integral parts of our environment.
• Many things that happen in nature are a complex result of systematic, explainable factors and chance.
• A coin toss is a chance event, but not because it is in principle impossible to determine the outcome by measuring the angle of the toss, the precise composition of the coin, and many other variables. In fact, the outcome of a toss is determined by all these variables.
• But a coin toss is called a chance event because there is no easy way to measure all the variables in the event. The outcome of a toss is not in principle indeterminate, just currently indeterminable.
• Many events in the world are not entirely explainable in terms of systematic factors.
• Another example could be Smoking causes lung cancer. A systematic, explainable aspect of biology links smoking to this particular disease. But not all smokers contract lung cancer. The trend is probabilistic.