In: Finance
Stock A is expected to return 12 percent in a normal economy and lose 7 percent in a recession. Stock B is
expected to return 8 percent in a normal economy and 2 percent in a recession. The probability of the economy
being normal is 80 percent and the probability of a recession is 20 percent. What is the covariance of these two
securities?
Please SHOW Work Not JUST ExCell Thank You
Stock A
State of Economy | Probability (P) | Return(%) | Probability*Return | Deviation form expected return (D1) | |
Recession | 0.2 | -7 | -1.40 | -15.20 | |
Normal | 0.8 | 12 | 9.60 | 3.80 |
Expected return = Probability*Return
= -1.4+9.6
= 8.20%
*Deviation form expected return = Rate of return - expected return
Stock B
State of Economy | Probability (P) | Return(%) | Probability*Return | Deviation form expected return (D2) |
Recession | 0.2 | 2 | 0.40 | -4.80 |
Normal | 0.8 | 8 | 6.40 | 1.20 |
Expected return = Probability*Return
= .4+6.4
= 6.80%
*Deviation form expected return = Rate of return - expected return
Probability (P) | Deviation (D1) | Deviation (D2) | PD1D2 |
0.2 | -15.20 | -4.80 | 14.59 |
0.8 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 3.65 |
Covariance = PD1D2
= 14.59+3.65
= 18.24