Question

Consider an example where X person has planned a trek in Himalayas. Suppose you are to assist in the decision-making of whether X should go ahead with the plan or not. Which model would you employ under the uncertainty management?

Answer 1

The model which would i employ under the uncertainty management are as follows:

1. Use Analytic techniques that don’t require high accuracy:- Simple statistical models are often more reliable for handling highly complex situations than more detailed models.
2. Prepare for multiple outcomes:- Inspite of making the one right guess on what will presumably happen, make multiple guesses. Place many small bets on a spread of options. this is often the way any truly innovative process works, and innovation may be a good analogy for prediction.
3. Find and believe the predictable elements of things:-   You may not be ready to predict who subsequent Adam Fuhrer will be for any particular social network, but you recognize there'll be a couple of participants with extremely high influence, and there'll be cascades of sentiment, sometimes sudden. simply because you don’t know which particular day it’s getting to rain doesn’t mean you ought to sell the umbrella.
4. Focus your evaluation of initiatives on the inputs, not just the outputs:-  Randomness will confound even the simplest efforts to supply results, so when assessing an initiative’s success, consider the standard of the decision to undertake it.
5. Remain agile, and strive to reply quickly:-   There’s no substitute for awareness, listening, and detecting events as soon as they happen.
6. Cultivate your reputation for extreme trust:-  In the end, you've got to organize for failure, success, and everything in between. But as long as others find you trustable, you’ll never get on your own.