A political researcher needs to gauge the current voter sentiment for the viability of building a...

A political researcher needs to gauge the current voter sentiment for the viability of building a border wall so that her boss (a Senator) can then decide on how to vote for a planned border wall funding bill. She obtains a list of 2,500 email addresses from an internet provider. These addresses are from zip codes that reside within the Senator’s district. She then uses Excel’s “RAND” formula to randomly select 1000 of these email addresses. This then serves as her sample. She sends an email to these 1000 people and requests that they respond to her questions via email. Do you think that the group of people who respond is likely to be representative of all registered voters in the district? Why or why not? Can the Senator rely on the results of this process to accurately inform how we should vote on the spending bill? Explain your answers.

Expert Solution

The group of people may or may not be the representative of the population due to the following reasons

It is not necessary that every voter has their personal email id.
Also if we assume that all the voters of the senator's district have a personal registered email id, the selection of sample should be done on stratified randomization basis, not on simple randomization. The district may be stratified according to blocks and then the number of voters should be selected according to the block size.
There may be also made clusters in the population representing the race and income classification of the voters so that suitable weightage can be associated with these factors.
Also, the voters may be classified according to the proximity of their residence from the border wall and then these groups may be sampled for required number of voters

Hence the current proposed sampling plan cannot provide accurate information for the suggestion of the votes on the spending bill. However, after following the above steps there is a probability of getting nearly accurate estimates of voters. In case, there are total 2500 voters in the district, then the process described in the question may prove to be successful in giving accurate information about voters.

orchestra answered 1 year ago

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