In: Finance
State of the economy |
probability |
Estimated rate of return |
Strong growth |
.1 |
25% |
Moderate growth |
.4 |
15 |
Weak growth |
.4 |
10 |
Recession |
.1 |
-12 |
Expected Return = 0.10(0.25) + 0.40(0.15) + 0.40(0.10) + 0.10(-0.12)
Expected Return = 11.30%
Variance = [(0.1)(0.25 - 0.113)2 + 0.4(0.15 - 0.113)2 + (0.4)(0.10 - 0.113)2 + 0.1(-0.12 - 0.113)2]
Variance = 0.0079
Standard Deviation = (0.0079)1/2
Standard Deviation = 0.089
CV = 0.089/0.113
CV = 0.79