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Starting with your identified 2019 level of revenue, you expect that revenue will increase by 10%...

Starting with your identified 2019 level of revenue, you expect that revenue will increase by 10% in 2020. You anticipate annual revenue growth will slow by 1% per year to the long-run industry growth rate of 5% by 2025. • You expect EBIT to be 12.5% of sales each year. • You expect any increase in net working capital requirements each year to be 10% of any year-on-year annual increases in revenue. • You expect capital expenditures to equal depreciation expenses in each year. • Nike’s Tax rate is 20%. • Nike’s weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is 9%.

Case 1 - Suppose you believe Nike's initial revenue growth rate in 2020 will be between 8% and 14% (with growth slowing linearly to 5% by year 2025). What range of prices for Nike stock is consistent with these forecasts? Case 2 – Beginning again with your base case assumptions, suppose you believe Nike's initial EBIT margin (as a % of revenue) will be between 9% and 14% of revenue. What range of prices for Nike stock is consistent with these forecasts? Case 3 – Beginning again with your base case assumptions, you observe that similar companies in the apparel industry have WACCs ranging from 7.5% to 10%. What range of prices for Nike stock is consistent with these forecasts? Case 4 - What range of stock prices is consistent if you vary the estimates in cases 1 – 3 simultaneously? Put another way, what is the range of stock prices you might expect if the worst/best case scenarios occur from each of the previous three cases simultaneously.

7) Determine a terminal value for​ Nike’s FCF from 2026 and beyond​ (value expressed in millions of 2025​ dollars).

The terminal​ value, in 2025​ dollars, of​ Nike's free cash flows from 2026 onward​ is:____ million dollars.​ (please round your answer to ONE decimal​ point)

8) Determine​ Nike’s Enterprise Value​ (as of the end of​ FY2019)

​Nike's Enterprise​ Value, as of the end of​ FY2019, is: $____million dollars. ​ (please round your answer to ONE decimal​ place)

Solutions

Expert Solution

The number of shares outstanding is calculated by dividing Market Cap/Share price and found to be 1561797752

The following tables contain the FCFF calculation and 2026 denotes 2026 onwards which is the terminal value calculated.

In the various scenarios the best case worst case scenarios are calculated and the corresponding share prices are calculated by dividing the NPV with the number of shares outstanding

Case 1 Optimistic scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 14.0% 12.2% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 5.0%
EBIT margin 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50%
WACC 9% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00%
Revenue 39117000 44593380 50033772 55237285 59987691 64066854 67270197
EBIT 4889625 5574173 6254222 6904661 7498461 8008357 8408775
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 3911700 4459338 5003377 5523728 5998769 6406685 6727020
WC Changes 547638 544039.2 520351.2 475040.6 407916.3 320334.3
FCFF 3911700 4459338 5003377 5523728 5998769 6406685 168175492.2
DCF 3588716 3753336 3863525 3913149 3898788 3820097 91997753.37
NPV 1.14835E+11
Share Price 73.52767899

Case 1 Pessimistic Scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 8.0% 7.4% 6.8% 6.2% 5.6% 5.0%
EBIT margin 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50%
WACC 9% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00%
Revenue 39117000 42246360 45372591 48457927 51462318 54344208 57061418
EBIT 4889625 5280795 5671574 6057241 6432790 6793026 7132677
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 3911700 4224636 4537259 4845793 5146232 5434421 5706142
WC Changes 312936 312623.1 308533.6 300439.1 288189 271721
FCFF 3911700 4224636 4537259 4845793 5146232 5434421 142653546.2
DCF 3588716 3555792 3503596 3432882 3344698 3240368 78036374.94
NPV 98702425484
Share Price 63.19795589

Case 2 Optimistic Scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%
EBIT margin 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00%
WACC 9% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00%
Revenue 39117000 43028700 46901283 50653386 54199123 57451070 60323623
EBIT 5476380 6024018 6566180 7091474 7587877 8043150 8445307
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 4381104 4819214 5252944 5673179 6070302 6434520 6756246
WC Changes 391170 387258.3 375210.3 354573.7 325194.7 287255.3
FCFF 4428044 4865685 5297969 5715728 6109325 6468990 169811000.1
DCF 4062426 4095350 4091004 4049166 3970642 3857248 92892432.22
NPV 1.17018E+11
Share Price 74.92536587

Case 2 Pessimistic Scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%
EBIT margin 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00%
WACC 9% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00%
Revenue 39117000 43028700 46901283 50653386 54199123 57451070 60323623
EBIT 3520530 3872583 4221115 4558805 4877921 5170596 5429126
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 2816424 3098066 3376892 3647044 3902337 4136477 4343301
WC Changes 391170 387258.3 375210.3 354573.7 325194.7 287255.3
FCFF 2706896 2989634 3271834 3547763 3811282 4056046 106471195.5
DCF 2483391 2516315 2526456 2513325 2477072 2418487 58243390.01
NPV 73178436438
Share Price 46.85525786

Case 3 Optimistic Scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%
EBIT margin 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50%
WACC 7.5% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
Revenue 39117000 43028700 46901283 50653386 54199123 57451070 60323623
EBIT 4889625 5378588 5862660 6331673 6774890 7181384 7540453
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 3911700 4302870 4690128 5065339 5419912 5745107 6032362
WC Changes 391170 387258.3 375210.3 354573.7 325194.7 287255.3
FCFF 3911700 4302870 4690128 5065339 5419912 5745107 241294494
DCF 3638791 3723414 3775368 3792928 3775287 3722608 145441438.8
NPV 1.6787E+11
Share Price 107.4850021

Case 3 Pessimistic Scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%
EBIT margin 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50%
WACC 10.0% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
Revenue 39117000 43028700 46901283 50653386 54199123 57451070 60323623
EBIT 4889625 5378588 5862660 6331673 6774890 7181384 7540453
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 3911700 4302870 4690128 5065339 5419912 5745107 6032362
WC Changes 391170 387258.3 375210.3 354573.7 325194.7 287255.3
FCFF 3911700 4302870 4690128 5065339 5419912 5745107 120647247
DCF 3556091 3556091 3523763 3459694 3365339 3242963 61911114.23
NPV 82615055476
Share Price 52.89740962

Case 4 Combined optimistic scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 14.0% 12.2% 10.4% 8.6% 6.8% 5.0%
EBIT margin 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00%
WACC 7.5% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%
Revenue 39117000 44593380 50033772 55237285 59987691 64066854 67270197
EBIT 5476380 6243073 7004728 7733220 8398277 8969360 9417828
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 4381104 4994459 5603783 6186576 6718621 7175488 7534262
WC Changes 547638 544039.2 520351.2 475040.6 407916.3 320334.3
FCFF 4446821 5059743 5666225 6243581 6767571 7213928 302984966.7
DCF 4136577 4378361 4561087 4675197 4714010 4674348 182625673.6
NPV 2.09765E+11
Share Price 134.3101264

Case 4 combined pessimistic scenario:

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenure growth 8.0% 7.4% 6.8% 6.2% 5.6% 5.0%
EBIT margin 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00%
WACC 10.0% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
Revenue 39117000 42246360 45372591 48457927 51462318 54344208 57061418
EBIT 3520530 3802172 4083533 4361213 4631609 4890979 5135528
Tax 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
EBIT(1-Tax) 2816424 3041738 3266827 3488971 3705287 3912783 4108422
WC Changes 312936 312623.1 308533.6 300439.1 288189 271721
FCFF 2728802 2954203 3180437 3404848 3624594 3836701 80570722.91
DCF 2480729 2441490 2389509 2325557 2250588 2165718 41345520.55
NPV 55399111798
Share Price 35.47137374

Terminal value is:

150809058.7

Enterprise Value is:

1.03866E+11

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