Question

6.

A.

Below are two hypothesis tests for claims made about the proportion. These are both very controversial having to do actual election results in America. In some cases I rounded numbers off for convenience. This round off is negligible and does not change conclusions of the hypothesis test. They are similar. Do either one for test credit, and both for (+5) extra credit. If you do both I will count the best one for test credit, and the other for extra credit) (+12)

In the year 2000 George Bush defeated Al Gore in a very close election for President. A very important state was Florida. There was a very big problem with the vote count and ballot in Palm Beach County. There, many votes were cast for Pat Buchanan (a very unpopular candidate in the entire State). Only 17,356 of 5,930,820 voted for Buchanan in the State of Florida giving a population proportion of .0029. Supporters of Al Gore said that the 3407 of 462,000 votes for Buchanan in Palm Beach County was too high forming a proportion for this county that was significantly greater than .0029. They claimed there must have been some kind of error in the count of the ballot. Test the claim that the proportion is greater than .0029 at a statistical level of significance of .01. Show your hypothesis test and state your conclusion. Also, tell what you think about the results.( Below is the ballot used)

(+12)

   

Conclusion:

B. ..."Democracy failed in Georgia," Abrams said of the contest, which was marred by allegations of voter roll purging and suppression largely affecting African Americans. "This time, the mistakes clearly altered the outcome." This Quote was taken from Stacy Abrams. She was defeated by Brian Kemp in a race for Governor of Georgia in 2018. Her statement was based on a claim that the proportion of African American voters whose voter registration application where either on hold, or were not allowed to vote, was far too high. The population proportion of African American voters in this state is 32%. This sample of 53,000 “voters” whose votes were not counted, or were not allowed to vote, revealed approximately 37,100 were African Americans (this is 70%). Defenders of the Secretary Of State (who was, in fact, her opponent Brian Kemp), said their registrations were in error. In fact, this was true in some cases, were the applicant moved and their address were wrong, or things like a missing suffix (like Junior (Jr.)) was left off. Suppose it was found that of the 70% of African Americans whose votes were not counted, Kemp found legitimate reasons for about 20%.

Suppose Kemp is given the benefit of doubt, and we consider the sample of people who were not allowed to vote, or whose vote was not counted, to be 26500 African Americans from the 53,000. (that is, a sample proportion of .50)

Given the population proportion of African Americans in Georgia is 32%, test the claim that 26500 African Americans, of 53000 people whose vote was not counted or were not allowed to vote was too high. In fact, it is, to Quote Stacy Abrams “Outrageous”, at the 1% level of significance. Give the hypothesis test as well as what you think about this result.

( Note: p-hat= .5, n=53000)

  

Conclusion:

Answer 1