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This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown Moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing...

This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown




Moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing methods are forecasting methods that are used for a time series with a horizontal pattern. These methods provide a high level of accuracy for short-range forecasts, such as a forecast for the next time period and are used to smooth out random fluctuations in the time series and have a high level of accuracy for short-range forecast. The moving Average method uses the average of most recent data values in the time series as the forecast for the next period. In moving averages, only the new observations are used; therefore, the old observations are replaced by the new averages; hence, claiming the name “moving” averages. (Anderson et al., 2016) Simple moving average is the easiest and simplest way to calculate forecasting and was used prior to the invention of computers. Moving averages typically use daily closing prices. (Banton, 2019) Weighted moving average involves selecting a different weight for each data value in the moving average. More weight is given to the most recent observations, as the observation becomes old, the relevant weight decreases. Exponential smoothing also uses a weighted average of past time series values as a forecast and is used a special case of the weighted moving averages method.
There are several measures to determine the forecast accuracy. “These measures are used to determine how well a particular forecasting method is able to reproduce the time series data that are already available. The forecast error is used to measure the forecast accuracy. The “mean absolute error, denoted MAE, is a measure of forecast accuracy that avoids the problem of positive and negative forecast errors offsetting one another...MAE is the average of the absolute value of the forecast errors.” (Anderson, et al., 2016) Mean Squared error is another measure that avoids the problem of positive and negative errors offsetting each other. This is obtained by computing the average of the squared forecast errors. (Anderson, et al., 2016) The accuracy of the forecast makes the prediction more reliable and provides stability in planning, purchasing and forecasting productions.

In: Economics

This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown Moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing...

This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown



Moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing methods are three forecasting methods that are appropriate for a time series with a horizontal pattern. These methods are easy to use and generally provide a high level of accuracy for short-range forecasts, such as a forecast for the next time period. “The moving averages method uses the average of the most recent k data values in the time series as the forecast for the next period (Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, & Ohlmann, p.211). “Weighted moving averages involve selecting a different weight for each data value in the moving average and then computing a weighted average of the most recent k values as the forecast”(Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, & Ohlmann, P. 214). “Exponential smoothing also uses a weighted average of past time series values as a forecast; it is a special case of the weighted moving averages method in which we select only one weight—the weight for the most recent observation. The weights for the other data values are computed automatically and become smaller as the observations move farther into the past”(Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, & Ohlmann, p. 215).

There are several measures of forecast accuracy. These measures are used to determine how well a particular forecasting method is able to reproduce the time series data that are already available. The key concept associated with measuring forecast accuracy is forecast error. “The mean absolute error, denoted MAE, is a measure of forecast accuracy that avoids the problem of positive and negative forecast errors offsetting one another”(Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, & Ohlmann, p. 207). “Another measure that avoids the problem of positive and negative errors offsetting each other is obtained by computing the average of the squared forecast errors” and is referred to as the mean squared error (Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, & Ohlmann, p. 208). These measures of forecast accuracy simply measure how well the forecasting method is able to forecast historical values of the time series. Measures of forecast accuracy are important factors in comparing different forecasting methods. Obviously the better the forecast accuracy is, the better the prediction will be and the organization can plan accordingly. A forecast is not beneficial if it is not accurate and these methods and measures allow us to get the best possible forecast.

In: Economics

Is it possible for a game with two players, two choices, and no mixed strategies to...

Is it possible for a game with two players, two choices, and no mixed strategies to have more than two Nash equilibria?

In: Economics

This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown Forecasting is instrumental in the insurance industry. From...

This passge below require critical analysis and breakdown



Forecasting is instrumental in the insurance industry. From forecasting potential risks in the economy, to forecasting customer needs to ensure proper staffing, we must prepare for the unexpected. When forecasting we utilize quantitative methods since we have past data we can look back on (Anderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, & Ohlmann, 2016). In my role, the biggest use of forecasting comes in our staffing levels. We staff our claims center to ensure we have enough representatives on hand to help customers when needed. We then go even deeper and use forecasting to develop schedules for associates to ensure we have reps available to answer phones while also working on new tasks.
Forecasting can improve organizational processes by learning from the past. An example would be how many pies a baker needs to make. If they sell historically five pies a day then they should stock accordingly to avoid waste. However, if it is thanksgiving time, they may need to produce more for the increased demand, so by using historical data and forecasting, they can determine how many more baking assistants would be needed along with how many pies to make. Forecasting can also be used to determine store hours for a business. If their main job is selling goods for families they may need to stay open later, but if they market to contractors they would need to open earlier than normal business hours to be available.

In: Economics

Goods 1 and 2 are perfect complements for Kane. He always consumes these two goods in...

Goods 1 and 2 are perfect complements for Kane. He always consumes these two goods in the ratio of 2 units of good 2 for every unit of good 1. The price of good 1 is $1.00, and the price of good 2 is $4.00. Kane has $936.00 to spend. part 1) The substitution effect of a change in the price of good 2 from $4.00 to $6.00 will reduce the demand for good 2 by _______ units. part 2) The income effect of the increase in the price of good 2 from $4.00 to $6.00 will cause demand for good 2 to fall by ________ units..

In: Economics

In what instances could a business plan be used?

In what instances could a business plan be used?

In: Economics

The late economic historian Peter Schumpeter considered perfect competition to be "inferior" to monopoly. Why was...

The late economic historian Peter Schumpeter considered perfect competition to be "inferior" to monopoly. Why was this? Why might monopolies spend more on research and development.

In: Economics

The government wants to implement a $1 excise tax on cigarettes, which is levied on the...

The government wants to implement a $1 excise tax on cigarettes, which is levied on the consumers. That is, for every pack of cigarettes that a consumer buys, he or she has to pay a $1 tax. (a) Use a supply and demand diagram to illustrate what happens to the price and quantity of cigarettes. (b) If the supply curve of cigarettes is perfectly elastic, what happens to the price and quantity of cigarettes? (c) If the supply curve of cigarettes is perfectly inelastic, what happens to the price and quantity of cigarettes?

In: Economics

Identify the other macroeconomic factors that affect the general level of interest rates and discuss how...

Identify the other macroeconomic factors that affect the general level of interest rates and discuss how each of these factors affects interest rates

In: Economics

Go into detail about the scope and purpose of a global marketing strategy

Go into detail about the scope and purpose of a global marketing strategy

In: Economics

Consider the effects of the Corona pandemic (both on the AD and AS). Starting with an...

Consider the effects of the Corona pandemic (both on the AD and AS). Starting with an initial long-term equilbrium, show these effects by drawing the graphs for: a) Goods Market; and b) Short and Long Run Phillips Curves under the two different scenarios:

i. No action is taken

ii. Suppose that a monetary policy action is taken to overcome the resulting problem.

In: Economics

Discuss how the concept of opportunity cost is related to the concept of production possibilities frontier.

Discuss how the concept of opportunity cost is related to the concept of production possibilities frontier.

In: Economics

COMPARE BOAT INSURANCE AND P&I (CLUB) INSURANCES (SCOPE, GENERAL CONDITIONS, etc.)?

COMPARE BOAT INSURANCE AND P&I (CLUB) INSURANCES (SCOPE, GENERAL CONDITIONS, etc.)?

In: Economics

QUESTION 13 SECTION 1 Because deflation is so costly, some have argued that setting an inflation...

QUESTION 13

SECTION 1
Because deflation is so costly, some have argued that setting an inflation target at 2 percent is too low and it should be set higher, to 3 percent, especially in the economic environment of 2007–2010.

  1. Consider the impact of such an increase in the inflation target using the AD/AS framework in the short and long run. Begin your analysis in the long-run equilibrium.
  2. How would you change your answer if expectations are rational and the FED is credible?

In: Economics

Discuss a specific market in which sellers have been able to establish brand loyalty through product...

Discuss a specific market in which sellers have been able to establish brand loyalty through product differentiation. How are firms in this market impacted by COVID-19? Do you believe that government should focus financial assistance on business owners, families, or both during these difficult times? Explain it in between 100 to 200 words.

In: Economics