In: Finance
ABC is considering opening up a subsidiary in Utopia, a newly independent country. The company’s Foreign Exchange Division (FED) is tasked with forecasting the value of Utopia’s currency. How should FED go about accomplishing its task?
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FED Can accomplish the task by appropriately looking at the:
1. Interest rate parity:
As per Interest rate parity the difference in spot fate and forward rate exits due to differences in interest rate between two countries.
F/S = (1+ra)/(1+rb)
F= forward rate
S = spot rate.
ra = interest rate of price currency.
rb= interest rate of base currency.
2. Purchasing power parity:
As per Purchasing power parity- the difference in spot fate and forward rate exits due to differences in inflation between two countries.
Es/S = (1+Ia)/(1+Ib)
Es= Expected exchange rate.
S = spot rate.
Ia = inflation rate of price currency.
Ib= inflation rate of the base currency.
3. The relative strength of both economics.
A lower strength economies currency depreciates in comparison to A higher strength economies currency.
4. Econometric Model:
Laking various factors of the economy into consideration like gross domestic product growth rate differential, income growth rate differential, the interest rate differential between two countries etc.