Question

Explain and describe the concept of a population projection.

Answer 1

it is way by which the summary of the expected population in the future can be made. it is always analysed on the basis of the data of the last few years. along with the considerations of the fertility, mortality and migrations. they are generally based on the present conditions and predict the future birth rates, death rates and the migration rates. they are long vterm statements. there are 7 types of population projections. total population preojection are made forthe whole country. the projections for the state, region, district or any other part of the country are called regional population projections. forward projections are the the ones which are the most common whereby the projections about the future are made by considering the past populations in mind. in certain cases the present population conditions are used to make a projection about the past population. this is called the backward projections. high projections involve the birth rates to be high, death rates to be low , immigration rates to be high and emigration rates to be low. medium projections need the death rates, birth rates, immigration rates as well as emmigration rates all to be medium. if all the immigration, emmigration, birth and death rates are high then the projections are low. overall three methids of projections are used-

mathematical method- density increase and growth of population are inversely proportional to each other. this means that the population growth decreases as the density increases. it is based on the s shaped logistic curve. demographers do not use this as the formula of obtaining this is very complicated.

arithmetic method- This method says that the yearly change whether increase or decrease remains the same and in this method the crude birth and death rates are considered. it follows the formula which says that the population projections in future is equal to the present population added to the product of number of years between the projection and the recent consensus and the difference between the recent consensus population and the previous consensus population to the after dividing it to the number of years between the previous and recent consensus.

geometric method- it uses the formula that says that the 9projected popukation is equal to the population of recent consensus multiplies by the years and the value after adding 1 to the rate of increase or decrease.