The Rams are playing the Aggies in the last conference game of the season. The Rams...

The Rams are playing the Aggies in the last conference game of the season. The Rams are trailing the Aggies 21 to 14 with 7 seconds left in the game, when they score a touchdown. Still trailing 21 to 20, the Rams can either go for two points and win or go for one point to send the game into overtime. The conference championship will be determined by the outcome of this game. If the Rams win, they will go to the Candy Ball with a payoff of $6.4 million; if they lose they go to the Crocodile Bowl with a payoff of $1.2 million. If the Rams go for two points there is 30% chance they will be successful and 70% chance they will fail and lose. If they go for one point there is a 0.97 probability of success and 0.03 probability of failure. If they tie they will play overtime, in which the Rams have a 40% of winning because of fatigue.

Draw a decision tree for this problem.
What should the Rams do to achieve the highest expected monetary value (EMV) and what is the EMV?
What would the Rams’ probability of winning the game in overtime have to be to make the Rams indifferent between going for one point or two points?

Expert Solution

Colby Messinger answered 5 months ago

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