In: Statistics and Probability
Suppose a mutual fund qualifies as having moderate risk if the standard deviation of its monthly rate of return is less than 3%. A mutual-fund rating agency randomly selects 29 months and determines the rate of return for a certain fund. The standard deviation of the rate of return is computed to be 1.96%. Is there sufficient evidence to conclude that the fund has moderate risk at the alpha equals 0.10 level of significance? A normal probability plot indicates that the monthly rates of return are normally distributed.
Here we want to test "Whether the mutual fund qualifies as having moderate risk if the standard deviation of its monthly rate of return is less than 3% ?"
Let's write null hypothesis ( H0 ) and the alternative hypothesis ( H1) from the above claim is as followes:
Let's use minitab:
Step 1) Click on Stat>>>Basic Statistics >>1 variance...
Data : Select "sample standard deviation"
Sample size: n = 29
Sample standard deviation: 1.96
Then select "Perform hypothesis test"
Look the following image:
Step 2) Click on Option
Confidence level = 90
Alternative: less than
Then click on OK
Again Click on OK
So we get the following output:
From the above output, we get
p- value = 0.004
Decision rule:
1) If p-value < level of significance (alpha) then we reject null hypothesis
2) If p-value > level of significance (alpha) then we fail to reject null hypothesis.
Here p value =0.004 which is less than 0.10 so we used first rule.
That is we reject null hypothesis
Conclusion: At 10% level of significance there are sufficient evidence to conclude that the fund has moderate risk.