Question

Suppose that a 6-month European call A option on a stock with a strike price of $75 costs $5 and is held until maturity, and 6-month European call B option on a stock with a strike price of $80 costs $3 and is held until maturity. The underlying stock price is $73 with a volatility of 15%. Risk-free interest rates (all maturities) are 10% per annum with continuous compounding.

(a) Construct a butterfly spread with the two kinds of options. Draw a diagram showing how the profit and loss of the trading strategy portfolio depends on the stock price at the maturity of the option.

(b) Use put-call parity to explain how would you construct a European put with the same maturity and strike price as European call A option. What is the price of the synthetic put?

(c) Suppose now the European call B option is dividend-paying with dividend yield 5% per annum. Use a two-step tree to value European call B. Draw the binomial tree and analyze. Specify the the percentage up move- ment, the percentage down movement, the risk-neutral probability of an up movement and a down movement.

Answer 1

To solve this question just input those variables which are to be used in logistic regression, as the question talks about using two variables only that is total loans and leases to total assets & total expenses/ total assets, so we will not input total cap/assets as an input variable in our excel, here we go

As one can see, we have taken only two variables , total exp/assets and total lns & leases/ assets in calculation, follwing steps have been followed to construct the above table

1. Assume logit= b0+ b1* independent variable1+ b2* independent variable 2 , take values of b0=0.1, b1=0.1, b2=0.1, note that these values of b0, b1 and b2 are just taken for calculation, one could assume any values here for bo , b1 and b2

2. Calculate exponential of logit in the next column by using exp (value in previous column)

3. Calculate probability by using formula, probability= exp (logit)/ { 1+ exp(logit)} in the next column

4. In next column, calculate log likelihood by using formula : financial condition value (i.e. 1 or 0) * LN( probability calculated in previous column) + (1- financial condition value)* LN( 1- probability calculated in previous column)

5. take the total of the column values of log likelihood

6. use solver function in excel to change this total by putting max value of 0 and changing the variable cells containing assumed values of b0, b1 and b2 , by clicking on solve, you will get actual values of b0, b1 and b2

which comes out to be b0=-14.72, b1=89.83, b2= 8.37

therefore you will get logit as

-14.72+ 89.83* Total exp/assets+8.37*Total lns & lsses/ assets

With values given in the question as total exp/ assets= 0.11 and total loans & leases/ assets= 0.6 , we get

logit as -14.72+ 89.83* 0.11+ 8.37*0.6= 0.1833

exp (logit) = 1.20

Probability= 0.546

Loglikelihood= 1*LN(0.546)+0*LN(1-0.546)= LN(0.546)= -0.605