Question

Problem 2. The US National Park Service (NPS) believes that airborne sulfur pollution and acid rain has significantly reducing the water quality in several lakes and streams in the Adirondacks State Park in NY. Many of these water bodies are considered biologically ‘dead.’ Coal fired power plants in the Midwest contribute most of the pollution. If 70% of the sulfur pollution was removed, the NPS believes that many of the lakes and streams would return to their natural biological state. The costs and benefits associated with this project are as follows:

1. Construction cost for sulfur removal equipment = $300 million for each of the first three years of the project. (During these three years there are no other costs associated with the project.)

2. Operation and maintenance costs = $ 85 million per year (These costs begin to accrue once the project comes on-line in the fourth year. They continue to accrue over the entire life of the equipment, i.e., through the 20th year.)

3. Estimated increase in revenues earned by the Adirondacks State Park = $ 150 million per year (These additional revenues accrue so long as the sulfur reduction equipment is operating.)

4. Reduced incidence of acid rain in the Adirondacks Park area valued at: = $ 2 million per year. (These benefits begin accruing once the project comes on-line and are assumed to continue over an infinitely long time period.) Assume that the discount rate is 3% per year.

Sensitivity analysis: To determine the sensitivity of your conclusion regarding whether the project makes economic sense or not, (a) evaluate the project at a discount rate of 5% per year, and (b) assume that the estimated increase in Park revenues is $130 million per year instead of $150 million per year. You can assume a discount rate of 3% per year for this. What is your conclusion now?

Policy recommendation: Based on all your calculations, what is your overall recommendation regarding this project?

PROBLEM IV Binghamton University is building a recreation center. The estimated construction cost is $12 million with annual staffing and maintenance costs of $750,000 over the 20-year life of the project (ie, t = 0, 1, 2, …, 19). At the end of the life of the project (ie, at t = 19), Binghamton expects to be able to sell the land for $4 million, though the amount could be as low as $2 million and as high as $5 million. Analysts estimate the first-year benefits (accruing at the end of the year of the first year, ie at t =1) to be $1.2 million. They expect the annual benefit to grow in real terms due to increases in population and income. Their prediction is an annual growth rate of 4 percent, but it could be as low as 1 percent or as high as 6 percent. Analysts also estimate the real discount rate for Binghamton to be 6 percent per year, though it could be a percentage point lower or higher.

1. Calculate the present value of net benefits for this project using the analysts’ predictions.

2. Investigate the sensitivity of the present value of net benefits to alternative projections within the ranges given by the analysts. Change only one assumption at a time, and try all possible combinations of assumptions (there are 27 possible combinations).

3. Based on your analysis on parts 1 and 2 of this problem, do you think Binghamton University should build the recreation center?

Answer 1