Question

Discuss shortly the different risks which are associated with foreign exchange market.

Answer 1

The foreign exchange (FX or FOREX) market is the market where exchange rates are determined. Exchange rates are the mechanisms by which world currencies are tied together in the global marketplace, providing the price of one currency in terms of another. An exchange rate is a price, specifically the relative price of two currencies. For example, the U.S. dollar/Mexican peso exchange rate is the price of a peso expressed in U.S. dollars. On March 23, 2015, this exchange rate was USD 1.0945 per EUR, or, in market notation, 1.0945 USD/EUR.

Like stocks, the end goal of forex trading is to yield a net profit by buying low and selling high. Forex traders have the advantage of choosing a handful of currencies over stock traders who must parse thousands of companies and sectors. In terms of trading volume, forex markets are the largest in the world. Due to high trading volume, forex assets are classified as highly liquid assets. The majority of foreign exchange trades consist of spot transactions, forwards, foreign exchange swaps, currency swaps and options. However as a leveraged product there is plenty of risk associated with forex trades that can result in substantial losses.

The following are the major risk factors in FX trading:

• Exchange Rate Risk
• Interest Rate Risk
• Credit Risk
• Country Risk
• Liquidity Risk
• Marginal or Leverage Risk
• Transactional Risk
• Risk of Ruin

Exchange Rate Risk

Exchange rate risk is the risk caused by changes in the value of the currency. It is based on the effect of continuous and usually volatile shifts in the worldwide supply and demand balance. For the period the trader’s position is outstanding, the position is subject to all price changes. This risk can be quite substantial and is based on the market's perception of which way the currencies will move based on all possible factors that happen (or could happen) at any given time, anywhere in the world. Additionally, because the off-exchange trading of Forex is largely unregulated, no daily price limits are imposed as exist for regulated futures exchanges.

Interest Rate Risks

In basic macroeconomics courses you learn that interest rates have an effect on countries' exchange rates. If a country’s interest rates rise, its currency will strengthen due to an influx of investments in that country’s assets putatively because a stronger currency provides higher returns. Conversely, if interest rates fall, its currency will weaken as investors begin to withdraw their investments. Due to the nature of the interest rate and its circuitous effect on exchange rates, the differential between currency values can cause forex prices to dramatically change.

Credit Risk

Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counterparty. Credit risk is usually something that is a concern of corporations and banks.

Country Risk

When weighing the options to invest in currencies, one must assess the structure and stability of their issuing country. In many developing and third world countries, exchange rates are fixed to a world leader such as the US dollar. In this circumstance, central banks must sustain adequate reserves to maintain a fixed exchange rate. A currency crisis can occur due to frequent balance of payment deficits and result in devaluation of the currency. This can have substantial effects on forex trading and prices.

Due to the speculative nature of investing, if an investor believes a currency will decrease in value, they may begin to withdraw their assets, further devaluing the currency. Those investors who continue trading the currency will find their assets to be illiquid or incur insolvency from dealers. With respect to forex trading, currency crises exacerbate liquidity dangers and credit risks aside from decreasing the attractiveness of a country's currency. This was particularly relevant in the Asian Financial Crisis and the Argentine Crisis where each country's home currency ultimately collapsed.

Leverage Risks

In forex trading, leverage requires a small initial investment, called a margin, to gain access to substantial trades in foreign currencies. Small price fluctuations can result in margin calls where the investor is required to pay an additional margin. During volatile market conditions, aggressive use of leverage will result in substantial losses in excess of initial investments.

For example, if at the time of purchase, 10% of the price of a contract were deposited as margin, a 10% decrease in the price of the contract would, if the contract were then closed out, result in a total loss of the margin deposit before any deduction for brokerage commissions. A decrease of more than 10% would result in a total loss of the margin deposit. Some traders may decide to commit up to 100% of their account assets for margin or collateral for Foreign Exchange trading. Traders should be aware that the aggressive use of leverage will increase losses during periods of unfavorable performance.

Transaction Risks

Transaction risks are an exchange rate risk associated with time differences between the beginning of a contract and when it settles. Forex trading occurs on a 24 hour basis which can result in exchange rates changing before trades have settled. Consequently, currencies may be traded at different prices at different times during trading hours. The greater the time differential between entering and settling a contract increases the transaction risk. Any time differences allow exchange risks to fluctuate, individuals and corporation dealing in currencies face increased, and perhaps onerous, transaction costs. Errors in the communication, handling and confirmation of a trader's orders (sometimes referred to as "out trades") may result in unforeseen losses.

Counterparty Risk

The counterparty in a financial transaction is the company which provides the asset to the investor. Thus counterparty risk refers to the risk of default from the dealer or broker in a particular transaction. In forex trades, spot and forward contracts on currencies are not guaranteed by an exchange or clearing house. In spot currency trading, the counterparty risk comes from the solvency of the market maker. During volatile market conditions, the counterparty may be unable or refuse to adhere to contracts.

Risk of Ruin

Even where a trader/customer's medium to longer term view of the market may be ultimately correct, the trader may not be able to financially bear short-term unrealized losses, and may close out a position at a loss simply because he or she is unable to meet a margin call or otherwise sustain such positions. Thus, even where a trader's view of the market is correct, and a currency position may ultimately turn around and become profitable had it been held, traders with insufficient capital may experience losses.