Question

1. A real estate developer is assessing an area for future retail development. She believes it is only profitably to develop a retail outlet in this area if a medical facility or industrial facility is built in the general vicinity within the next 5 years. Typically industrial facilities precede the development of medical facilities. Using this knowledge and some market research, she has arrived at the following probabilities. The overall probability that an industrial facility will be built in the area in the next 5 years is 30%. If the industrial facility is built, she believe the probability that the medical facility is built is 40%. If the industrial facility is not built, she believes the probability that the medical facility will be built goes down to 20%. What is the probability of the following events?

a) neither am industrial facility or medical facility is built

b) only an industrial facility is built

c) only a medical facility is built

d) both an industrial facility and a medical facility is built

e) She also has arrived at the following net present values for her retail development project based on the 4 events above. Given these outcomes and the probabilities you calculated above, what is her expected NPV? Should she do the project?

EVENT	NPV
neither a industrial facility or medical facility is built	-10 Million
only an industrial facility is built	5 million
only a medical facility is built	3 million
both an industrial facility and a medical facility is built	20 million

f. Our real estate developer has learned that the probability that an industrial facility is built in the next 5 years has risen from 30% to 90%. Based on this, rework the problem and provide the new expected NPV of the project. Should she do the project?

Answer 1