Question

In: Finance

In the coronavirus pandemic, stock analysts have a new job: credit analysis. As the global economy...

In the coronavirus pandemic, stock analysts have a new job: credit analysis.
As the global economy grinds to a standstill amid mandatory shutdowns, the survival of many businesses is suddenly in doubt, especially those in vulnerable sectors such as airlines, hotels and restaurants. Instead of asking how fast a company can grow, ever-optimistic equity analysts now have to answer a grimmer question: how long can it last if its revenue vanishes? This focus on cold, hard cash means they have to do work that is more familiar to credit analysts: analyzing available liquidity, looking at debt covenants and repayment schedules and checking the extent to which assets are unencumbered.
While the current economic freeze is unprecedented, making it hard to prepare for, investors overlooked credit health in the bull market. They were focused on growth -- never mind whether companies were able to make money -- and often pie-in-the-sky projections of potential market size. Now that balance sheets have taken center stage, traditional metrics like net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization or even tangible book value are back in vogue.
Even for companies whose businesses aren't immediately at risk, refinancing existing debts could pose big problems. The junk-bond market has stalled in recent weeks, so investors need to understand what alternative financing channels are available to companies: credit lines from banks or assets that could be used to secure loans. Even for those that can still borrow, the surging costs will hurt their profits down the road. Average yield on dollar-denominated, junk-rated corporate bonds stands at 12%, up from below 6% just a month ago, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
With everyone in cash-preservation mode, companies that used to pay generous dividends are starting to cut back. Delta Air Lines, Marriott International, Macy's and Ford Motor have all suspended their payouts in recent days, and more will likely follow.
Analysts better acquainted with income statements need to pay closer attention to companies' balance sheets right now.

Solutions

Expert Solution

Yes, it is true that the outcome of the coronavirus pandemic is that stock analysts and equity analysts have had to overhaul their evaluation method of a company. Earlier the analysts were only focused on the growth aspect of the company and hence equity analysts and stock analysts’ core focus area was the free cash flow of a company and its possible growth in future. These analysts, it can be said, failed to look deeper in the company and do basic and fundamental analysis of the company with regards to its liquidity situation and credit outlook. This was a big mistake on their part as the credit risk associated with a company was often overlooked and the analysts got away with this as the economy had been mostly on an upswing and stock markets had witnessed more or less a bullish trend in which what mattered at the end of the day was growth prospects of a company.

With the changing economic scenario and market scenario after the outbreak of the corona pandemic analysts have started taking a holistic approach towards looking at a company and determining what drives its valuation and what are the different risk factors associated with it. This approach is a better approach as it takes into consideration the entire spectrum of risks that can affect the valuation of a company and its stock.


Related Solutions

Analyse the Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy, elaborate your answer using a...
Analyse the Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy, elaborate your answer using a diagram
IMF predicts deeper global recession due to coronavirus pandemic WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic has...
IMF predicts deeper global recession due to coronavirus pandemic WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic has caused wider and deeper damage to economic activity than first thought, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday, prompting the institution to slash its 2020 global output forecasts further. The IMF said it now expects 2020 global output to shrink by 4.9%, compared with a 3.0% contraction predicted in April, when it used data available as widespread business lockdowns were just getting into full...
Global Supply Chains have been hit extensively by the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID19) pandemic affecting Global trade...
Global Supply Chains have been hit extensively by the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID19) pandemic affecting Global trade and Investment at an unprecedented speed and scale. This has been worsened by the reliance on China for most supplies causing most governments, businesses, institutions, and individual consumers with unprecedented shortages. The effect has been predicted to last for a few years. The current situation calls for a radical change in procurement and modeling of supply chains. You are to recommend the critical change...
what is the Impact of coronavirus pandemic on the major business of the economy and small...
what is the Impact of coronavirus pandemic on the major business of the economy and small business of the economy ? ( 300 word at least )
The coronavirus pandemic will cause a global recession in 2020 that could be worse than the...
The coronavirus pandemic will cause a global recession in 2020 that could be worse than the one triggered by the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, but world economic output should recover in 2021, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. Use the IS-LM-BP model to explain what this shock will mean for the levels of output/income and interest rates in South Africa. Draw the graph and explain the complete chain reaction.
write how COViD-19 (Coronavirus Pandemic) affected the global businesses and how can we respond to coronavirus...
write how COViD-19 (Coronavirus Pandemic) affected the global businesses and how can we respond to coronavirus outbreak. 800 words
Imagine that the economy is hit by a pandemic of Coronavirus, which affects the total factor...
Imagine that the economy is hit by a pandemic of Coronavirus, which affects the total factor productivity. What are the equilibrium effects of this? (Determine howC(consumption), N(employment),Y(output), and w(wages) change in a CE.)
Who will be the winners in a post-pandemic economy? COVID-19 is putting the global economy into...
Who will be the winners in a post-pandemic economy? COVID-19 is putting the global economy into a tailspin. Many countries are heading for very sudden and unprecedented recession. This crisis will catalyze some huge changes. Few industries will avoid being either reformed, restructured or removed. Agility, scalability and automation will be the watchwords for this new era of business, and those that have these capabilities now will be the winners. In light of this back drop as a “Strategic Management...
The advent of coronavirus pandemic triggers a global economic crisis in 2020, including an economic recession...
The advent of coronavirus pandemic triggers a global economic crisis in 2020, including an economic recession lasting many weeks or months in many countries? As a financial manager proffer global remedies to this financial crisis.
Discuss how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the various aspects of the Namibian economy explained in...
Discuss how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting the various aspects of the Namibian economy explained in the economic outlook. [20 marks] Suggest the possible policies the government must take to counteract the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy. [20 marks]
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT