Question

Uncertainty in intelligence analysis remains an important issue for consideration. Intelligence customers want, and often expect certainty in intelligence products, yet the nature of intelligence production often precludes establishment of such a product. Because of this, intelligence analysts are left to struggle with ways of expressing uncertainty. Imagine you are an analyst tasked with answering the question "will India and Pakistan go to war within the next 12 months?" You've gathered the available information, both intelligence information and open source information. You've done the analysis and reached a conclusion. You've decided, using a variety of analytic techniques, that there is a chance of war, and you have decided that it's a better than even chance, but less than certain. For the sake of discussion, let's say that if you had to express that likelihood in terms of percentages, you'd estimate a 65% chance of war. How would you inform your customer of your conclusions? Would you say "there's a 65% chance?" Or would you refrain from nailing down a specific probability and answer in some other way? Defend your answer.

Answer 1

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I would go with a definite percentage because it’s the numbers that would make one act towards it. For example, if I look at the data and say there is 35 % of chance the customer knows that it might not happen because it’s below the 50% chance. If I say there is 50% of chance, the customer would prepare for the war option because doing one’s good and preparing for the worst is what happens with intelligence news. If I say there is 65% of war, the customer for sure would rely on the certainty of a war thus spending more time adjusting to the war. So, giving definite numbers mean indirectly telling them what would happen because at least they would act to prevent any damage in the future.