Question

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The Australian economy is "weak",with households weighed down by slow wages growth and higher taxes,the OECD has declared in a report that backs lower interest rates,calls for more government spending and paves the way for unconventional monetary policies.In its six-monthly review of the global economy,the Paris-based think tank has sharply downgraded its expectations for Australia while raising serious concerns about the level of debt being carried by households.

The Morrison government this week announced $3.8 billion of infrastructure projects would be pulled forward or given additional funding over the next four years. The decision followed calls from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA),which has sliced official interest rates to a record low 0.75 per cent,for a lift in public spending plus productivity-enhancing structural reforms.

But economists have warned the new spending will equate to less than 0.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP),arguing much more needs to be done to get the economy growing fast enough to bring down the national unemployment rate.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),which noted the global economy was now growing at its slowest rate since the global financial crisis,said it expected Australian GDP to expand by 2.3 per cent this year and next,well short of the federalgovernment's forecast.

It also expects private consumption,which accounts for about 60 per cent of total economic activity,to barely grow faster than inflation over the next two years.In March,the OECD was expecting unemployment to start edging down. It has now lifted its forecasts,tipping unemployment to average 5.3 per cent in 2020.Economic activity has been weak," the OECD said about Australia. "Private consumption spending has been sluggish,weighed down by slow wage growth and an increase in taxes paid by households."

While the government has argued its recent tax cuts will help households offset slow wages growth,the OECD and other organisations such as the RBA have noted overall tax levels are increasing as the budget returns to surplus.

Research this week from National Australia Bank found Australian household debt was now at a record high of 202 per cent of annual income.The OECD said high household indebtedness could "exacerbate" any economic shock that hit Australia.

It said with the RBA likely to cut interest rates further,which in turn could feed into a lift in house prices,lending standards might have to be tightened to protect households.

"High household indebtedness means that the authorities should stand ready to tighten macro- prudential policy settings if lower interest rates fuel house price inflation through a sharp pick- up in credit," the OECD found.While expecting further rate cuts,the organisation said the Morrison government should "loosen fiscal policy" to help get the economy growing faster.

"Fiscal policy is expected to provide little support to economic growth,in accordance with the federal government's commitment to future budget surpluses," it said. "A more expansionary fiscal stance may be warranted given that the economy is growing well below its potential and the relatively low public debt burden.

"At the same time,growth-enhancing tax reforms should be prioritised. These include shifting the tax mix away from direct taxes and inefficient taxes like real estate stamp duty to the GST and land taxation."Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the nation's economic fundamentals remained sound,with the country now in its 29th consecutive year of growth.

He said there were "headwinds",particularly due to trade policy tensions that have hit confidence and business investment globally since May,but "the government's focus on productivity-enhancing reform will ensure our economy remains resilient".

"The international challenges are a stark reminder of why we must stick to our economic plan which has delivered lower taxes so you can keep more of what you earn,more infrastructure to boost productivity and which will return the budget back to surplus so we can meet the challenges that lie ahead," he said.

Question：Consider the statement,“In March,the OECD was expecting unemployment to start edging down. It has now lifted its forecasts,tipping unemployment to average 5.3 per cent in 2020.”If the unemployment rate increases,what are the costs to an economy? How does it compare with the natural rate of unemployment? （word limit: 200-300)

Answer 1

If the unemployment rate icreases, the economy is affected from the perspective of the individuals, society and the nation (economy) as a whole. Individual's loosing jobs will reduce their incomes, consumption levels and standards of living. In turn this will decrease their savings rate, increase indebtness. Finally this will impact the development of indiviual skills and abilities and can make unemployment adverse.. such affects can alter the politicial and psychological state of the society. It can induce nations to follow protectionism (migration restrictions), create trade wars, increase crime rate and create a vicious cycle of negative expectations. This creates adverse economic costs. the primary cost is in the form of rising bills of the goverments (in form of unemployment insurances or food assitance). Further more it can reduce the revenues the goverment recieves from various taxes (e.g income tax). The primary parameters of a nations's welfare like consumption can be adversely affected. Businesses and Investments are affected as the rise in goverment bills are funded by increased corporate taxes. Overall this can impact the overall GDP (output) of the nation which can further adversify unemployment unless some stringent fiscal policy or structural changes bring about some stability.

The Natural rate of employment is an ongoing unemployment that aways exists in the economy in the form of frictional and structural unemployment. They are part of effecient and developing economy where newer investments and developments are in process. The impact discussed above is particularly true for cyclical unemployments and not for the natural rate of unemployment.