In: Statistics and Probability
7. In questions 7, and 8, suppose 1% of all cars are stolen
every year. An anti-theft system manufacturer claims that only 0.3%
of all cars equipped with their system are stolen. A consumer
advocacy group intending to evaluate this claim, tracks 12000 cars
equipped with the anti-theft system and found that 30 of them were
stolen in the first six months of 2017. Assuming that the first 6
months of the year are no different from the second 6 months of the
year in terms of number of theft, what are the H0 and H1 in the
study run by the consumer advocacy group? (Hint: P is defined as
the proportion of cars stolen every year)
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8.What is the value of the test statistics, and what do you
conclude at 95% confidence level?. (Hint: Our sample is only from
tracking cars for 6 months, not the entire year, so what does our 6
months sample indicate about the proportion of stolen cars in 12
months? That is how you find P^)
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Question 7
A. H0: p = 0.003, H1: p ≠ 0.003
Explanation:
The claim is given as only 0.3% of all cars equipped with anti-theft system are stolen. This is the null hypothesis. There is no mention whether the proportion decrease or increase so we use two tailed test. We only want to check whether the population proportion is 0.3% or not.
Question 8
We are given x = 30 for six months. So, x would be 30*2 = 60 for one year.
We have n = 12000
Confidence level = 95%, so
Level of significance = α = 0.05
Sample proportion = P = x/n = 60/12000 = 0.005
Test statistic formula is given as below:
Z = (P – p)/sqrt(pq/n)
Where, P is sample proportion, p is population proportion, q = 1 – p, and n is sample size.
We are given n = 12000, p = 0.003, q = 1 – 0.003 = 0.997, P = 0.005
Z = (0.005 – 0.003)/sqrt(0.003*0.997/12000)
Z = 4.0060
P-value = 0.0001
(by using z-table)
P-value < α = 0.05
So, we reject the null hypothesis
There is insufficient evidence to conclude that only 0.3% of all cars equipped with anti-theft system are stolen.
D. z=4, so we reject the H0, and the anti-theft system manufacturer’s claim is invalid