Question

5. Pure expectations theory

The pure expectations theory, or the expectations hypothesis, asserts that long-term interest rates can be used to estimate future short-term interest rates.

Based on the pure expectations theory, is the following statement true or false?

The pure expectations theory assumes that a one-year bond purchased today will have the same return as a one-year bond purchased five years from now.

False

True

The yield on a one-year Treasury security is 4.4600%, and the two-year Treasury security has a 6.6900% yield. Assuming that the pure expectations theory is correct, what is the market’s estimate of the one-year Treasury rate one year from now? (Note: Do not round your intermediate calculations.)

10.2231%

11.3889%

8.9676%

7.6225%

Recall that on a one-year Treasury security the yield is 4.4600% and 6.6900% on a two-year Treasury security. Suppose the one-year security does not have a maturity risk premium, but the two-year security does and it is 0.2%. What is the market’s estimate of the one-year Treasury rate one year from now? (Note: Do not round your intermediate calculations.)

7.2755%

8.5594%

10.8704%

9.7577%

Suppose the yield on a two-year Treasury security is 5.83%, and the yield on a five-year Treasury security is 6.20%. Assuming that the pure expectations theory is correct, what is the market’s estimate of the three-year Treasury rate two years from now? (Note: Do not round your intermediate calculations.)

6.61%

7.10%

6.45%

5.46%

Answer 1