Question

The current administration is offering the 2 trillion dollars stimulus package to maintain the loss due to the unprecedented chaos caused by the Coronavirus. (Let’s say this package can inject 4 trillion dollars into the economy this year while including the multipliers).

• What will be the unemployment rate during this summer? How about at the end of the year?

The US unemployment rate in March 2020 was 4.4%. It is expected to increase due to lockdowns and the fact that it will take some time for businesses, especially small ones, to recover. My estimation for the summer unemployment rate would be 5.5%.At the end of the year hopefully quite a lot of businesses would have recovered. My estimate for the end of year business rate would be 4%.

• Use GDP per capita in the US in 2019, calculate the total number of unemployed people because of the Coronavirus in 2020, and estimate the total loss in the economy, due to the unemployment.
• 2019 USA GDP per capita $65,111.6
• Total US labor force is ~165 million.
• The US unemployment rate in December 2019 was 3.6%. This has jumped to 4.4% now, an increase of .8%.
• .8%x165= 1.32 million
• Total loss in economy due to unemployment= 1.32mil x65111= 85.947 billion

If businesses lose 10 percent of their value by the end of this year (despite the stimulus package), what is the total loss in the economy because of that (use Wall Street Journal website to derive the total assets of the US companies)?

• American total assets for the quarter ending December 31, 2019 were $525.064B.
• A 10% loss from that is 52.5 billion

• What will be your estimation of the total GDP in 2020? Calculate the growth rate (from 2019 to 2020)

My estimation is that there will be contraction in US economy in first 2 quarters, and then slight expansion in the last 2 quarters. Total growth would be level, at best at .5%. So, total GDP in 2020

=GDP in 2019x1.005

=21.44x1.005= $21.5472 trillion

NEED ANSWERS TO THE FOLLOWING

• Based on your above calculations, roughly compute the saving rates in 2020 if the population growth rate would be 0.5 percent, depreciation rate 3 percent, and technological progress 1 percent (considering the current crisis). Explain the “ODD” result you get!

• Explain and calculate the total debt for the US at the end of 2020 (part of the debt is due to the stimulus package, and the other part is because of the reduction in government’s revenue from taxation).

• Who will pay this debt, and how will this debt show itself in the future of the US economy?

• Who is (actually) responsible for this substantial cumulative debt? Support your claim

Answer 1