In: Statistics and Probability
The National Football League (NFL) records a variety of performance data for individuals and teams. To investigate the importance of passing on the percentage of games won by a team, the following data show the conference (Conf), average number of passing yards per attempt (Yds/Att), the number of interceptions thrown per attempt (Int/Att), and the percentage of games won (Win%) for a random sample of 16 NFL teams for the 2011 season (NFL web site, February 12, 2012)
Team | Conference | Yds/Att | Int/Att | Win% |
Arizona Cardinals | NFC | 6.5 | 0.042 | 50.0 |
Atlanta Falcons | NFC | 7.1 | 0.022 | 62.5 |
Carolina Panthers | NFC | 7.4 | 0.033 | 37.5 |
Cincinnati Bengals | AFC | 6.2 | 0.026 | 56.3 |
Detroit Lions | NFC | 7.2 | 0.024 | 62.5 |
Green Bay Packers | NFC | 8.9 | 0.014 | 93.8 |
Houstan Texans | AFC | 7.5 | 0.019 | 62.5 |
Indianapolis Colts | AFC | 5.6 | 0.026 | 12.5 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | AFC | 4.6 | 0.032 | 31.3 |
Minnesota Vikings | NFC | 5.8 | 0.033 | 18.8 |
New England Patriots | AFC | 8.3 | 0.020 | 81.3 |
New Orleans Saints | NFC | 8.1 | 0.021 | 81.3 |
Oakland Raiders | AFC | 7.6 | 0.044 | 50.0 |
San Francisco 49ers | NFC | 6.5 | 0.011 | 81.3 |
Tennessee Titans | AFC | 6.7 | 0.024 | 56.3 |
Washington Redskins | NFC | 6.4 | 0.041 | 31.3 |
Estimated Regression: Y= -5.763 + 12.949 + -1083.788
The average number of passing yards per attempt for the
Baltimore Ravens during the 2011 season was 6.7, and the team’s
number of interceptions thrown per attempt was 0.022. Use the
estimated regression equation developed in part (c) to predict the
percentage of games won by the Baltimore Ravens during the 2011
season. (Note: For the 2011 the 2011 season, the Baltimore
Ravens' record was 7 wins and 9 loses.)
Compare your prediction to the actual percentage of games won
by the Baltimore Ravens. If required, round your answer to one
decimal digit. The Baltimore Ravens performed worse than predicted by ___% ? |
SUMMARY OUTPUT | |||||
Regression Statistics | |||||
Multiple R | 0.867461188 | ||||
R Square | 0.752488913 | ||||
Adjusted R Square | 0.714410284 | ||||
Standard Error | 12.60236794 | ||||
Observations | 16 | ||||
ANOVA | |||||
df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | |
Regression | 2 | 6277.014191 | 3138.507096 | 19.76145 | 0.000114 |
Residual | 13 | 2064.655809 | 158.8196776 | ||
Total | 15 | 8341.67 | |||
Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 95% | |
Intercept | -5.763283816 | 27.1467994 | -0.212300674 | 0.835165 | -64.4104 |
Yds/Att | 12.94935632 | 3.185669555 | 4.064877446 | 0.001338 | 6.067136 |
Int/Att | -1083.787956 | 357.1165398 | -3.034829909 | 0.009575 | -1855.29 |
Yds/Att = 6.7 , Int/Att = 0.022
hence predicted win% = 57.154 %
actual win % = 7/(7+9) = 43.75 %
the Baltimore Ravens performed worse than predicted by 13.4 %
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