In: Statistics and Probability
Consider the dataset regarding the drop in light percent output (output) and two input variables – bulb surface (qualitative) and length of the operation hours (quantitative). The data is available in a sheet named ‘Problem 3’. Answer the following.
(a) Write down the overall model form if one wishes to build a second order model for each value of the qualitative variable
(c) Build a regression model showing the 90% confidence ranges of the regression parameters. Write down the mean estimates of the regression parameters for the model in (a)
(d) Write down the 90% bounds of the estimate of the y-intercept
(constant term)
(e) Compute the model prediction for a bulb with a dirty surface
and with 1500 operation hours.
(f) Perform one-way hypothesis testing for the existence of ?2 term, where ?2 is the qualitative input. Use ? = 0.05
DATA
Drop in light output percent (Output) | Bulb surface (Qualitative input) | Length of operation hours (Quantitative input) |
0 | Clean | 0 |
16 | Clean | 400 |
22 | Clean | 800 |
27 | Clean | 1200 |
32 | Clean | 1600 |
36 | Clean | 2000 |
38 | Clean | 2400 |
0 | Dirty | 0 |
4 | Dirty | 400 |
6 | Dirty | 800 |
8 | Dirty | 1200 |
9 | Dirty | 1600 |
11 | Dirty | 2000 |
12 | Dirty | 2400 |
SOLUTION
(a) y=b0+b1x+b2x2
y=Drop in light output percent (Output) and x=Length of operation hours (Quantitative input)
(c)y=1.2738+0.0183*x-3.6E-06*x2
(d)
Lower 90% | Upper 90 |
-10.8200 | 13.3677 |
(e) for x=1500, y=1.2738+0.0183*1500-3.6E-06*1500*1500=20.6238
(f) here we use t-test and t=coefficient/SE(coefficient)=-3.6E-06/5.26E-06=-0.6859
the one-tailed critical t(0.05,11)=1.7959 is greater than absolute value of calculated t=0.6859, so x2 term is not significant and it may be removed from the model ( i.e. no existence)
following regression analysis information has been generated using ms-excel
SUMMARY OUTPUT | ||||||
Regression Statistics | ||||||
Multiple R | 0.637572 | |||||
R Square | 0.406499 | |||||
Adjusted R Square | 0.298589 | |||||
Standard Error | 10.9107 | |||||
Observations | 14 | |||||
ANOVA | ||||||
df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | ||
Regression | 2 | 896.881 | 448.4405 | 3.767037 | 0.056730925 | |
Residual | 11 | 1309.476 | 119.0433 | |||
Total | 13 | 2206.357 | ||||
Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value | Lower 90% | Upper 90% | |
Intercept | 1.27381 | 6.734228 | 0.189155 | 0.853417 | -10.82008801 | 13.36770706 |
X | 0.018348 | 0.013142 | 1.396123 | 0.190214 | -0.005253775 | 0.041950204 |
X2 | -3.6E-06 | 5.26E-06 | -0.68591 | 0.506971 | -1.3057E-05 | 5.83973E-06 |