In: Economics
Keystone Manufacturing, Inc., is analyzing a new bid
to supply the company with electronic control systems. Alpha
Corporation has been supplying the systems and Keystone is
satisfied with its performance. However, a bid has just been
received from Beta Controls, Ltd., a firm that is aggressively
marketing its products. Beta has offered to supply systems for a
price of $120,000. The price for the Alpha system is $160,000. In
addition to an attractive price, Beta offers a money-back
guarantee. That is, if Beta=s systems do not match Alpha=s quality,
Keystone can reject and return them for a full refund. However, if
it must reject the machines and return them to Beta, Keystone will
suffer a delay costing the firm $60,000.
Construct a decision tree for this problem
Determine the maximum probability that Keystone could assign to
rejection of the Beta system before it would reject that firm’s
offer, assuming that it decides on the basis of minimizing expected
costs.
Assume that Keystone assigns a 50% probability of rejection to Beta
Controls. Would Keystone be willing to pay $15,000 for an assurance
bond that would pay $60,000 in the event that Beta Controls fails
the quality check? Explain your choice of answer .