Question

In: Operations Management

Month Estimate Actual 1 1100

Month Estimate Actual

1 1100 1050

2 1050 1200

3 1200 950

4 900 1170

5 1170 1050

6 1000 1050

1) What is the Mean Bias?

2) What is the Mean Absolute Ratio (MAR) at the end of period 6?

Expert Solution

Month Estimate Actual

1 1100 1050

2 1050 1200

3 1200 950

4 900 1170

5 1170 1050

6 1000 1050

Mean Bias =sum of (M-O)/n

Where

M = predicted concentration

O = observed concentration

Month	M	O	M-O	O/M	(O/M)-1	Mod of (O/M)-1
1	1100	1050	50	0.95	-0.05	0.05
2	1050	1200	-150	1.14	0.14	0.14
3	1200	950	250	0.79	-0.21	0.21
4	900	1170	-270	1.30	0.30	0.3
5	1170	1050	120	0.90	-0.10	0.1
6	1000	1050	-50	1.05	0.05	0.05
		Sum	-50			0.85

Mean Bias = -50/6=-8.33

MAR=sum[Mod of (O/M)-1] (n)^0.5

MAR=0.85*(6)^0.5 =2.0825

keosha answered 10 months ago

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