Question

Is it possible to experience 2ND WAVE of SARS-CoV2, even if the first wave haven't flatten the curve yet? The Philippines' DOH is announcing a 2nd wave even if they haven't ever flatten their curve on the first wave. If yes, please cite credible sources.

Answer 1

For pandemic diseases, there is a chance of having second and third wave or more to occur. In the history the biggest pandemic occured in 1918, when spanish flue striked. There was a primary wave which longed for almost 2 years and then it disappeared. Later a second outbreak occured which was more intensed and lethal by a mutant strain of the same organism.In most of the cases if a second wave occurs, it will be more dangerous. Basically a second wave is called so, when a fight wave occured and it become less strong and flattens the curve and for some time virus become inactive. Then a mutated version emerges and forms a second more strong comeback. But H1N1 was an exception were second wave was not much strong.

In case of COVID outbreak, the world is still struggling and the curve is not yet flattened. Their are still new cases and death rates whose rates are fluctuating day by day. So till now, we cant say that there is nearby a second wave. Because it also depends on the character of the pathogen also. The first wave curve must be flattened and then only we can look forward for a second wave. Anyway preventive strict measures muat be taken to prevent the spreading and a solution like an antidote or vaccine must be discovers as soon as possible.

According to Dr. Suzanne Sicchia, an associate professor at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Health and Society at the University of Toronto Scarborough, made clear that a second wave occurs when new severe cases of infection report after a period of time with no new cases.

Dr. Jeff Kwong, an infectious disease specialist and associate professor in the department of family and community medicine at the University of Toronto, suggested that there are many factors which affects a second wave.

He said that if this virus behaves like the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, things might calm down over the summer but things are not sure.
Anyway without the flattening of a curve i.e. having a significant period without new reported cases, we cant say the first wave is flattened and thus we cant expect a second wave. It it happens in the usual viral pandemic manner. Second wave comes after a pause and lets hope it won't happen.