Question

In: Statistics and Probability

The table shows the results of a survey of 100 authors by a publishing company.   ...

The table shows the results of a survey of 100 authors by a publishing company.

   New Authors Established Authors Total
Successful 10 30 40
Unsuccessful 10 50 60
Total 20 80 100

Compute the following conditional probability.

An author is established, given that she is successful.


2) The table shows the results of a survey of 100 authors by a publishing company.

   New Authors Established Authors Total
Successful 15 25 40
Unsuccessful 10 50 60
Total 25 75 100

Compute the following conditional probability.

An unsuccessful author is established.

Solutions

Expert Solution

   New Authors Established Authors Total
Successful 10 30 40
Unsuccessful 10 50 60
Total 20 80 100

P[ An author is established, given that she is successful ] = P[ An author is established and she is successful ] / P[ she is successful ]

P[ she is successful ] = Number of successful author / Total number of authors

P[ she is successful ] = 40/100

P[ An author is established and she is successful ] = Number of established and successful author / Total number of authors

P[ An author is established and she is successful ] = 30/100

P[ An author is established, given that she is successful ] = ( 30/100)/(40/100)

P[ An author is established, given that she is successful ] =3/4

P[ An author is established, given that she is successful ] = 0.75

   New Authors Established Authors Total
Successful 15 25 40
Unsuccessful 10 50 60
Total 25 75 100

P[ An author is established given she is unsuccessful ] = P[ An author is established and she is unsuccessful ] / P[ she is unsuccessful ]

P[ An author is established and she is unsuccessful ] = Number of established and unsuccessful authors / Total number of authors

P[ An author is established and she is unsuccessful ] = 50/100

P[ she is unsuccessful ] = Number of unsuccessful authors / Total number of authors

P[ she is unsuccessful ] = 60/100

P[ An author is established given she is unsuccessful ] = (50/100)/(60/100)

P[ An author is established given she is unsuccessful ] = 5/6

P[ An author is established given she is unsuccessful ] = 0.8333


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