Question

The following are daily exchange rates with the Japanese Yen quoted in Yen/Dollar.

Date	Yen/Dollars
19-Apr-13	99.28
18-Apr-13	98.22
17-Apr-13	97.74
16-Apr-13	97.86
15-Apr-13	98
12-Apr-13	98.98
11-Apr-13	99.42
10-Apr-13	99.61
9-Apr-13	99.02
8-Apr-13	98.9
5-Apr-13	96.86
4-Apr-13	96.12
3-Apr-13	92.96
2-Apr-13	93.43
1-Apr-13	93.3
29-Mar-13	94.16
28-Mar-13	94.02
27-Mar-13	94.38
26-Mar-13	94.22
25-Mar-13	94.34
22-Mar-13	94.48
21-Mar-13	95.06
20-Mar-13	95.51
19-Mar-13	94.85
18-Mar-13	94.92
15-Mar-13	95.26
14-Mar-13	96.16
13-Mar-13	96
12-Mar-13	95.96
11-Mar-13	96.12
8-Mar-13	96
7-Mar-13	95
6-Mar-13	93.64
5-Mar-13	93.39
4-Mar-13	93.32
1-Mar-13	93.38
Feb. 28, 2013	92.36
Feb. 27, 2013	91.88
Feb. 26, 2013	91.38
Feb. 25, 2013	93.35
Feb. 22, 2013	93.35
Feb. 21, 2013	92.96
Feb. 20, 2013	93.53
Feb. 19, 2013	93.54
Feb. 15, 2013	93.64
Feb. 14, 2013	93.1
Feb. 13, 2013	93.39
Feb. 12, 2013	93.14
Feb. 11, 2013	93.44
Feb. 8, 2013	92.72

Plot the Yen/Dollar exchange rate. Use Megastat to do an exponential smoothing using Alpha = .05, .1, .2, .5. Make a different line chart for each. Which process represents the data best. Is this process appropriate for this type of data.

Please show all work and upload your worksheet

Answer 1

For Alpha = 0.05

Yen/Dollars	Forecast
	*
99.28
98.22	99.28
97.74	99.23
97.86	99.15
98.00	99.09
98.98	99.03
99.42	99.03
99.61	99.05
99.02	99.08
98.90	99.08
96.86	99.07
96.12	98.96
92.96	98.81
93.43	98.52
93.30	98.27
94.16	98.02
94.02	97.83
94.38	97.64
94.22	97.47
94.34	97.31
94.48	97.16
95.06	97.03
95.51	96.93
94.85	96.86
94.92	96.76
95.26	96.67
96.16	96.60
96.00	96.57
95.96	96.55
96.12	96.52
96.00	96.50
95.00	96.47
93.64	96.40
93.39	96.26
93.32	96.12
93.38	95.98
92.36	95.85
91.88	95.67
91.38	95.48
93.35	95.28
93.35	95.18
92.96	95.09
93.53	94.98
93.54	94.91
93.64	94.84
93.10	94.78
93.39	94.70
93.14	94.63
93.44	94.56
92.72	94.50

For Alpha = 0.1

Yen/Dollars	Forecast
	*
99.28
98.22	99.28
97.74	99.17
97.86	99.03
98.00	98.91
98.98	98.82
99.42	98.84
99.61	98.90
99.02	98.97
98.90	98.97
96.86	98.97
96.12	98.75
92.96	98.49
93.43	97.94
93.30	97.49
94.16	97.07
94.02	96.78
94.38	96.50
94.22	96.29
94.34	96.08
94.48	95.91
95.06	95.77
95.51	95.70
94.85	95.68
94.92	95.59
95.26	95.53
96.16	95.50
96.00	95.57
95.96	95.61
96.12	95.64
96.00	95.69
95.00	95.72
93.64	95.65
93.39	95.45
93.32	95.24
93.38	95.05
92.36	94.88
91.88	94.63
91.38	94.36
93.35	94.06
93.35	93.99
92.96	93.92
93.53	93.83
93.54	93.80
93.64	93.77
93.10	93.76
93.39	93.69
93.14	93.66
93.44	93.61
92.72	93.59

For Alpha = 0.2

Yen/Dollars	Forecast
	*
99.28
98.22	99.28
97.74	99.07
97.86	98.80
98.00	98.61
98.98	98.49
99.42	98.59
99.61	98.76
99.02	98.93
98.90	98.94
96.86	98.94
96.12	98.52
92.96	98.04
93.43	97.02
93.30	96.31
94.16	95.70
94.02	95.40
94.38	95.12
94.22	94.97
94.34	94.82
94.48	94.73
95.06	94.68
95.51	94.75
94.85	94.90
94.92	94.89
95.26	94.90
96.16	94.97
96.00	95.21
95.96	95.37
96.12	95.49
96.00	95.61
95.00	95.69
93.64	95.55
93.39	95.17
93.32	94.81
93.38	94.51
92.36	94.29
91.88	93.90
91.38	93.50
93.35	93.07
93.35	93.13
92.96	93.17
93.53	93.13
93.54	93.21
93.64	93.28
93.10	93.35
93.39	93.30
93.14	93.32
93.44	93.28
92.72	93.31

For Alpha = 0.5

Yen/Dollars	Forecast
	*
99.28
98.22	99.28
97.74	98.75
97.86	98.25
98.00	98.05
98.98	98.03
99.42	98.50
99.61	98.96
99.02	99.29
98.90	99.15
96.86	99.03
96.12	97.94
92.96	97.03
93.43	95.00
93.30	94.21
94.16	93.76
94.02	93.96
94.38	93.99
94.22	94.18
94.34	94.20
94.48	94.27
95.06	94.38
95.51	94.72
94.85	95.11
94.92	94.98
95.26	94.95
96.16	95.11
96.00	95.63
95.96	95.82
96.12	95.89
96.00	96.00
95.00	96.00
93.64	95.50
93.39	94.57
93.32	93.98
93.38	93.65
92.36	93.52
91.88	92.94
91.38	92.41
93.35	91.89
93.35	92.62
92.96	92.99
93.53	92.97
93.54	93.25
93.64	93.40
93.10	93.52
93.39	93.31
93.14	93.35
93.44	93.24
92.72	93.34

The plots are as follows: