Question

A large insurance company maintains a central computing system that contains a variety of information about customer accounts. Insurance agents in a six-state area use telephone lines to access the customer information database. Currently, the company's central computer system allows three users to access the central computer simultaneously. Agents who attempt to use the system when it is full are denied access; no waiting is allowed. Management realizes that with its expanding business, more requests will be made to the central information system. Being denied access to the system is inefficient as well as annoying for agents. Access requests follow a Poisson probability distribution, with a mean of 47 calls per hour. The service rate per line is 25 calls per hour.

1. What is the probability that 0, 1, 2, and 3 access lines will be in use? Round your answers to 4 decimal places.
   

   j	Pj
   0
   1
   2
   3

   
   
2. What is the probability that an agent will be denied access to the system? Round your answers to 4 decimal places.
   
   
   
3. What is the average number of access lines in use? Round your answers to 4 decimal places.
   
   L =
   
4. In planning for the future, management wants to be able to handle λ = 55 calls per hour; in addition, the probability that an agent will be denied access to the system should be no greater than the value computed in part (b). How many access lines should this system have?
   
   lines will be necessary.

Answer 1

a) Probability that access line will be used

1) When j = 0,

P0 = (1-   / ), where is mean

P0 = (1- 25/47)

P0 = 0.4680

2) When j = 1

P1 = ( / )n * P0

P1 = (25/47) * 0.4680

P1 = 0.2489

3) When j = 2, using the same above formula,

P2 = (25/47)2 * 0.4680

P2 = 0.1324

4) when j = 3

P3 = (25/47)3 * 0.4680

P3 = 0.0704

Part b)

Probability that agent will be denied access to the system

Pad = ​​​​​​​ /

Pad = 25/47 = 0.5319

Part c)

L is the average number of access line in use

L = ​​​​​​​ / ( - ​​​​​​​ )

L = 25 / (47-25)

L = 25 / 22 = 1.1363

Part d)

Number of access line, if ​​​​​​​ = 55 calls per hour

L = ​​​​​​​ / ( - ​​​​​​​ ), solution of part c

L1 = L + ​​​​​​​new /

L1 = 1.1363 + (55 / 47)

L1 = 1.3296 + 1.1702

L1 = 2.4998