Question

Predict the number of new infections of COVID-19 that would occur in the state of New York in 16 days if social distancing had been relaxed on April 17, and we had resumed normal activities.  (The #infected on April 17 = 16,809, generation time = 4 days, and R0= 2.3)

Answer 1

ANSWER-

RO value determines the rate of infection spread in a community,here it is Being said that the RO is 2.3 which means that in a day a average person will infect around 2.3 people in a day and in the next day ,those increased numbers will infect the new others.

when RO is less than 1 then there is less community spread,when the RO is more than one than there is higher chances of community spread and infection is spreading at a higher rate .

as asked in the question, the number of infected people on day 1 is 16809

as RO is 2.3, then in the next day the number of infected people would be 16809*2.3 = 38660.7 (generation time -4 days)

day 5to8 - 38660.7 * 2.3 = 88919.7

day 9 to 12 = 88919*2.3 = 204515

day 13 to 16- 204515*2.3= 470384

around 470K new cases will come .

but this number is an approximate number ,as there are preventive measures, immunity differences between people, medications and others.

this is the basics of RO and number of spread.