Question

Please show the calculation process in Excel, thank you

7. With the gasoline time series data from Table 8.1, show the exponential smoothing forecasts using α=0.1.

   1. Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing

      constant of α=0.1 or α=0.2 for the gasoline sales time series?

   2. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy?

   3. What are the results if MAPE is used?

   4. Week	Sales (1000s of gallons)
      1	17
      2	21
      3	19
      4	23
      5	18
      6	16
      7	20
      8	18
      9	22
      10	20
      11	15
      12	22

Answer 1

Here complete Excel work is attached as per your requirement.

When applying for MSE for  α=0.1 => 8.4817

for  α=0.2 => 8.2337

For MSE  α = 0.2 is preferred

But for applying MSE and MAPE   α= 0.1 is preferred.

Please find the attached Excel work for MSE , MAE and MAPE.

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Thank you