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Gasworks, Inc., has been approached to sell up to 3.4 million gallons of gasoline in three...

Gasworks, Inc., has been approached to sell up to 3.4 million gallons of gasoline in three months at a price of $2.80 per gallon. Gasoline is currently selling on the wholesale market at $2.70 per gallon and has a standard deviation of 59 percent.

  

If the risk-free rate is 5 percent per year, what is the value of this option? Use the two-state model to value the real option. (Enter your answer in dollars, not millions of dollars, e.g., 1,234,567. Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answer to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.)

  

  Value of contract $

Solutions

Expert Solution

Risk-Free Rate = 5 %, Tenure of Real Option = 3 months or (3/12) = 0.25 years, Underlying Asset = Gasoline, Current Asset Price = S0 = $ 2.7 per gallon and Strike Price of Real Option = $ 2.8 per gallon (this is a put option as the underlying asset of the real option is to be sold in the future), Standard Deviation = 59 %

Upward Move Factor = u = e^[Standard Deviation x (Tenure)^(1/2)] = e^[0.59 x (0.25)^(1/2)] = 1.34313

and Downward Move Factor = d = 1/u = 1/1.34313 = 0.74453

Risk-Neutral Probability of Price moving Up = p = [EXP(0.05 x 0.25) - d] / [u - d] = [EXP(0.05 x 0.25) - 0.74453] / [1.34313 - 0.74453] = 0.44779

If Price Moves up:

Price of Gasoline = S0 x u = 2.7 x 1.34313 = $ 3.626451 and Payoff = $ 0 (as asset price is more than strike price)

If Price Moves down:

Price of Gasoline = S0 x d = 2.7 x 0.74453 = $ 2.010231 and Payoff = (2.8 - 2.010231) = $ 0.789769

Expected Value of Payoffs = E(Pf) = 0.44779 x 0 + (1-0.44779) x 0.789769 = $ 0.436118339

Put Price = Present Value of Expected Payoff = 0.436118339 / EXP (0.05 x 0.25) = $ 0.43070079 ~ $ 0.43 per gallon

Contract Size = 3.4 million gallons (as this is the maximum value that Gasworks can sell)

Price per Contract = 3.4 x 0.43 = $ 1.462 million


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