Question

In: Statistics and Probability

The unemployment rate (UR) for PEI by quarter was as follows: UR t Year Quarter...

The unemployment rate (UR) for PEI by quarter was as follows:

UR t

Year Quarter Rate For Regression

2017 Q1 11.9 1

Q2 7.9 2

Q3 8.1 3

Q4 10.1 4

2018 Q1 12.1 5

Q2 6.8 6

Q3 6.0 7

Q4 9.8 8

a) Sketch this data on a graph. Is there seasonality in the data?

b) Use a four quarter moving average to determine the seasonal factors for the four quarters.

Expert Solution

(a)

Yes, there is a seasonality from the graph.

(b)

				Centered
				Moving	Ratio to	Seasonal	UR Rate
t	Year	Quarter	UR Rate	Average	CMA	Indexes	Deseasonalized
1	1	1	11.9			1.327	8.97
2	1	2	7.9			0.772	10.24
3	1	3	8.1	9.525	0.850	0.841	9.64
4	1	4	10.1	9.413	1.073	1.061	9.52
5	2	1	12.1	9.013	1.343	1.327	9.12
6	2	2	6.8	8.713	0.780	0.772	8.81
7	2	3	6.0			0.841	7.14
8	2	4	9.8			1.061	9.24


	Calculation of Seasonal Indexes
	1	2	3	4
1			0.850	1.073
2	1.343	0.780
mean:	1.343	0.780	0.850	1.073	4.047
adjusted:	1.327	0.772	0.841	1.061	4.000

The seasonal factors are:

Calculation of Seasonal Indexes
1	2	3	4
		0.850	1.073
1.343	0.780

orchestra answered 1 year ago

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