In: Finance
1. You have seriously taken to heart the principle of time value
of money, so much so that you have decided to take up gambling and
buy a cheap round-trip bus ticket to Wendover, Nevada where you
think you can quickly win your retirement dollars. Conveniently,
there are three casinos on the corner of the bus depot to assist
you in your get-rich-quick scheme. As an added convenience, there
are even personal representatives of the casinos who greet all
buses with out-of-state license plates, handing out flyers
describing their respective casino’s one-time FREE SLOT MACHINE
PULL with a huge cash prize. You feel that one pull of the handle
at each of the three casinos is all you need. The odds of winning
at each casino are fixed to be equal (equally low that is) by the
Nevada Gaming Commission.
The Flyers read like this:
• Lose-Here-First Casino offers a $500,000 cash prize
• Thanks-For-Playing Casino offers a $400,000 cash prize
• Come-Back-Soon Casino offers a $1 million cash prize
While the rest of the bus passengers dart to their favorite
casinos, you take the time to read the fine print (as required by
the Nevada Gaming Commission) on the flyers:
• Lose-Here-First pays 50,000 in annual installments for10 years,
beginning one year from now
• Thanks-For-Playing pays $250,000 in one year and $50,000 per year
at the end of 2, 3, and 4 years from now
• Come-Back-Soon pays $20,000 per year for 50 years beginning one
year from now
Important Assumptions:
You believe that you will live until you are at least 80 and you
also know that casino payments to winners are placed in trust to
guard against casino bankruptcy so they represent completely safe
payments.
You also believe that interest rates will rise substantially after
the next 10 years have passed as inflation returns with a
vengeance. Therefore, your required rate of return (i.e. your
discount rate) is 6% per year for the next 10 full years and 10%
per year thereafter.
Since you want to get as rich as possible as quickly as possible,
which casino will you head to first, second, and third, and why?
(16 points)
Cash Flows | |||||||||||||
a) | Lose Here First casino - $50000 per year for 10 Years | ||||||||||||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 | ||||
Cash flows | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | |||
Discount rate for calculation of Present value is 6% | |||||||||||||
PV | $368,004.00 | ||||||||||||
b) | Thanks for playing casino | ||||||||||||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | ||||||||||
Cash flows | 250000 | 50000 | 50000 | 50000 | |||||||||
Discount rate for calculation of Present value is 6% | |||||||||||||
PV | $361,934.50 | ||||||||||||
c) | Come back soon casino - $20000 per year for 50 Years | Cashflows in Year 12 to 49 have also been considered for PV Calculation | |||||||||||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 | Year 11 | Year 50 | ||
Cash flows | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | 20000 | |
Discount rate for calculation of Present value is 6% till 10th year and beyond that 10% per year. | |||||||||||||
PV | $222,606.70 |
As the odds of winning at each casino are fixed to be equal (equally low that is) by the Nevada Gaming Commission, hence, the best payout based on PV is given by LOSE HERE FIRST casino so will play here first and then move onto THANKS FOR PLAYING CASINO and then to COME BACK SOON CASINO.