In: Finance
Is the hedge ratio chosen in order to minimise the variance of a futures position? Why/why not?
YES ,hedge ratio chosen in order to minimise the variance of a futures position
The minimum variance hedge ratio is important when cross-hedging, which aims to minimize the variance of the position's value. The minimum variance hedge ratio, or optimal hedge ratio, is an important factor in determining the optimal number of futures contracts to purchase to hedge a position.
It is calculated as the product of the correlation coefficient between the changes in the spot and futures prices and the ratio of the standard deviation of the changes in the spot price to the standard deviation of the futures price. After calculating the optimal hedge ratio, the optimal number of contracts needed to hedge a position is calculated by dividing the product of the optimal hedge ratio and the units of the position being hedged by the size of one futures contract.
Example of the Hedge Ratio
Assume that an airline company fears that the price of jet fuel will rise after the crude oil market has been trading at depressed levels. The airline company expects to purchase 15 million gallons of jet fuel over the next year, and wishes to hedge its purchase price. Assume that the correlation between crude oil futures and the spot price of jet fuel is 0.95, which is a high degree of correlation.
Further assume the standard deviation of crude oil futures and spot jet fuel price is 6% and 3%, respectively. Therefore, the minimum variance hedge ratio is 0.475, or (0.95 * (3% / 6%)). The NYMEX Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contract has a contract size of 1,000 barrels or 42,000 gallons. The optimal number of contracts is calculated to be 170 contracts, or (0.475 * 15 million) / 42,000. Therefore, the airline company would purchase 170 NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contracts.
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