Question
In: Statistics and Probability
A statistician has correctly predicted every earthquake in California for the past 30 years, as follows:...
A statistician has correctly predicted every earthquake in California for the past 30 years, as follows: Each day, the statistician predicts an earthquake. That way, whenever there's an earthquake, he can say that he correctly predicted it.
What, if anything, is wrong with the statistician's logic?
Solutions
Expert Solution
A statistician has correctly predicted every earthquake in California for the past 30 years,
as follows:
Each day, the statistician predicts an earthquake.
That way, whenever there's an earthquake, he can say that he correctly predicted it.
Here the way the prediction made by the statistician is wrong.
Because if he predicts an earthquake every day then the number of the day when an earthquake is predicted and earthquake does not happen will be greater than the number of day's when an earthquake is predicted and earthquake does not happen.
So here the probability of making an error is very high.
So we cannot say that the accuracy of prediction is good.
Because if he wants to know the accuracy he should have to consider the number of days when he wrongly predicts the earthquake.
whenever there's not an earthquake, then he incorrectly predicted it.
So logic of only saying accurately predict earthquake is not suited.
orchestra answered 2 years agoRelated Solutions
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