In: Statistics and Probability
If you bet $1 in Kentucky’s Pick 4 lottery, you either lose $1 or gain $4999. (The winning prize is $5000, but your $1 bet is not returned, so the net gain is $4999.) The game is played by selecting a four-digit number between 0000 and 9999. What is the probability of winning? If you bet $1 on 1234, what is the expected value of your gain or loss?
Here if, The game is played by selecting a four-digit number between 0000 and 9999.
Then,
For this bet, there are two outcomes: You either lose $1 or you gain $4999.
Probability of losing = 9,999 /10,000
Probability of winning = 1 /10,000
For lose : x = -$1 , p(x) = 0.9999 ,x*p(x) = -$0.9999
For gain: x = $4999 , p(x) = 0.0001 ,x*p(x) = $0.4999
Then total = lose - gain = -$ 0.5
The Probability of the winning is 1/10,000 and the value of gain or loss is -$ 0.5.
The Probability of the winning is 1/10,000 and the value of gain or loss is -$ 0.5.