Question

Problem 6-11

For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83.

1. Choose the correct time series plot.
   
   
   What type of pattern exists in the data?
   
   Horizontal Pattern
2. Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to three decimal places.

   	Moving average	Exponential smoothing
   MSE

   Exponential smoothing
3. What is the forecast for next month? If required, round your answer to two decimal places.

Answer 1

a)

b)

c)