In: Statistics and Probability
An insurance company offers a $180,000 catastrophic fire insurance policy to homeowners of a certain type of house. The policy provides protection in the event that such a house is totally destroyed by fire in a one-year period. The company has determined that the probability of such an event is 0.002. If the annual policy premium is $379, find the expected gain per policy for the company.
Let X : gain per policy per year,
Note X = 379 with probability = 1 - 0.002 = 0.998 ;
X = -180000 with probability = 0.002 ;
So, Expected value of X = E(X) = 0.002*(-180,000) + 0.998*(379) = 18.242 $