In: Finance
| 
 State of economy  | 
 Probability of state of economy  | 
 Rate of return if state occurs  | 
| 
 Recession  | 
 .30  | 
 -.07  | 
| 
 Normal  | 
 .60  | 
 .13  | 
| 
 Boom  | 
 .10  | 
 .23  | 
Expected return = (Probability of Recession * Returns at Recession) + (Probability of Normal * Returns at Normal) + (Probability of Boom * Returns at Boom)
Expected return = [0.30 * (-0.07)] + (0.60 * 0.13) + (0.10 * 0.23)
Expected return = 0.08 or 8%