In: Finance
State of economy |
Probability of state of economy |
Rate of return if state occurs |
Recession |
.30 |
-.07 |
Normal |
.60 |
.13 |
Boom |
.10 |
.23 |
Expected return = (Probability of Recession * Returns at Recession) + (Probability of Normal * Returns at Normal) + (Probability of Boom * Returns at Boom)
Expected return = [0.30 * (-0.07)] + (0.60 * 0.13) + (0.10 * 0.23)
Expected return = 0.08 or 8%