Question

Case: The incidence of a new infectious disease in Country A (population 20 million) during 2011 was 80 per 100,000. After catching the disease, the average person had the illness for five days. The cost of treating one case of the disease was $20 for each day the case had the disease. In 2012, the disease spread to Country Z (population 30 million), whose population closely resembles the population of Country A in terms of demographic characteristics such as age and sex. As a public health epidemiologist in Country Z, the Minister of Health wants you to use the 2011 data from Country A to estimate the impact of the infectious disease in Country Z for 2012. Specifically, the minister wants answers to the following questions [Please use between 300 to 500 words in total, including calculations. Please show your calculations].

1. How many people in Country Z will be likely to get the disease in 2012?

2. On any given day, how many people in Country Z have the disease?

3. The Minister suspects the actual cost of treatment in Country Z is $15/case/day. If so, then how much money will the Ministry of Health in Country Z spend in 2012 to treat all cases of the disease?

4. Will Country Z spend more on treating the disease in 2012 than Country A did in 2011?

5. What factor or factors account for the difference in spending between the two countries?

6. What’s your overall conclusions from this case study

Answer 1

How many people in Country Z will be likely to get the disease in 2012?

The incident rate of Country A was 80 per 100000. Assuming the same incidence rate for country Z, the estimated number of people to get the disease

= 80/100000 * 30000000

= 24000

24 Thousand people are likely to get the disease in 2012 in country Z

On any given day, how many people in Country Z have the disease?

24000 people are likely to get the disease in entire year 2012. Assuming each day to be equally likely for people to catch the disease, on any given day

24000/365

= 65.75

65.75 people are likely to have the disease on any given day

The Minister suspects the actual cost of treatment in Country Z is $15/case/day. If so, then how much money will the Ministry of Health in Country Z spend in 2012 to treat all cases of the disease?

Given,

24000 people are likely to suffer from the disease.

Each person having the disease on an average spends 5 days in illness.

Cost of treatment of the disease in Country Z is $15/case/day

Total cost of treatment of the disease

= 24000 * 5 * 15

= $1.8 million

Ministry of Health in Country Z spend is expected to spend $1.8 million to treat all cases of the disease

Will Country Z spend more on treating the disease in 2012 than Country A did in 2011?

Given in country A,

80/100000 * 20000000

= 16000 people are likely to suffer from the disease.

Each person having the disease on an average spends 5 days in illness.

Cost of treatment of the disease is $20/case/day

Total cost of treatment of the disease

= 16000 * 5 * 20

= $1.6 million

Country Z is expected to spend $1.8 million in treating all cases of the disease which is more than that of Country A ($1.6 million)

What factor or factors account for the difference in spending between the two countries?

As the incident rate and number of days of illness treatment is constant for both the countries, The following factors account for the difference in spending between the two countries -

Population of country

Rate of illness treatment of country

Conclusion of the study -

Despite having lesser rate for illness treatment than that of country A, Country Z is expected to spend $0.2 million more on treating all cases of the disease than country A due to more population