Question

In: Operations Management

Question 4 A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Monthly sales...

Question 4

A pharmacist has been monitoring sales of a certain over-the-counter pain reliever. Monthly sales during the last 15 months were:

Month

Number sold

Month

Number sold

Month

Number sold

1

36

6

49

11

52

2

38

7

50

12

55

3

42

8

49

13

54

4

44

9

52

14

56

5

48

10

48

15

57

  1. Using 3-Month Weighted Moving Average using 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 with the heaviest weights applied to the most recent months, develop forecasts for months from 11 to 16.       
  2. Using Exponential Smoothing using an α = 0.4 and the 10th Month forecast of 50, develop forecasts for months from 11 to 16.              
  3. Using Trend Projection, develop forecasts for months from 11 to 16.
  4. Justify which method you would suggest using to predict future sales.

Solutions

Expert Solution

d) based on the error measure MAD, it is better to select trend projection method of forecasting, because it provides more accurate results, as compared to other two methods.

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