Question

The trade war between the United States and China might last for 2-4 years as the world’s two largest economics have not found an efficient way to deal with their economic and trade problems, according to Douglas Paal.

How do you think that all this would influence the economic and trade relations among China, ASEAN and Taiwan?

Answer 1

In the era of globalization, somebody's loss is someone others' gain. If the trade war persists, it is but natural that the ASEAN countries have to take sides. Cambodia, Laos and perhaps Myanmar are expected to take China's side. While Vietnam may take USA's side. Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia & Singapore are expected to lose on both the sides as they are hugely invested economically and are dependent on the Sino-American concord.

As for Taiwan, many manufacturers like Giant (Bicycle Manufacturer), Gigabyte ( Motherboard) Manufacturer will have to move its production bases from China to other alternatives.

Delta Electronics of Taiwan has been hit directly by the 1st wave of tariff by US ($34 billion). It supplies power components to iPhones and MacBooks.Following these tariffs, it will acquire associate Delta Electronics (Thailand) to access the latter's manufacturing bases in Thailand, India, and Slovakia to avoid U.S. tariffs.

So we can conclude that the current trade war has significant effects on ASEAN and Taiwan